Ligue 1 · Sep 22, 2025 18:00
Marseille
PWR 48
Paris Saint Germain
PWR 49
Marseille
PWR 48
1 - 0
FT
Paris Saint Germain
PWR 49
27% H
29% D
44% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Paris Saint Germain to win (55% confidence)
Prediction
1-2
Score
55%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
3-2 (4%)
3-3 (4%)
3-1 (3%)
2-2 (3%)
2-3 (2%)
2-1 (2%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderOVER_25
BTTSBTTS_YES
LOST - Actual: 1-0
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 0%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk21%
Accuracy42%
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ Teams have similar stats - 31.8% draw probability💡 PIVOT: Under 2.5 recommended (71.2% accuracy)Close positions = higher draw riskStrong home team = lower draw riskElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: WR diff only 6.4% (32.2% home win rate)
Power & Form
Attack69
Defense67
Goals/G2.3
Conc/G1.1
Attack65
Defense76
Goals/G2.2
Conc/G0.8
Marseille Form
LWLWL
STABLE
Paris Saint Ge… Form
WWWWW
UP
Score & Markets
Over 2.564%
BTTS92%
Under 2.536%
Marseille Goals
0
1%
1
5%
2
11%
3
17%
4
19%
Paris Saint… Goals
0
7%
1
18%
2
25%
3
22%
4
15%
Expected Goals (xG)
4.50
Marseillevs
2.68
Paris Saint Ge…Decision Breakdown
HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum91%
Standings46%
Market50%
High draw risk (25%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#4
Marseille-2
Gap#2
Paris Saint…
WR 70% 39 pts
WR 64% 48 pts
Marseille
8.0%
| Sep 16 | Marseil… v Real Ma… | 2-1 |
| Sep 12 | Marseil… v Lorient | 4-0 |
| Aug 31 | Marseil… v Lyon | 1-0 |
| Aug 23 | Marseil… v Paris FC | 5-2 |
| Aug 15 | Marseil… v Rennes … | 1-0 |
| Aug 09 | Marseil… v Aston V… | 3-1 |
| May 17 | Marseil… v Rennes … | 4-2 |
| May 10 | Marseil… v LE Havr… | 1-3 |
| May 04 | Marseil… v Lille | 1-1 |
| Apr 27 | Marseil… v Brest | 4-1 |
Paris Saint Ge…
20.0%
| Sep 17 | Paris S… v Atalanta | 4-0 |
| Sep 14 | Paris S… v Lens | 2-0 |
| Aug 30 | Paris S… v Toulouse | 3-6 |
| Aug 22 | Paris S… v Angers | 1-0 |
| Aug 17 | Paris S… v Nantes | 0-1 |
| Aug 13 | Paris S… v Tottenh… | 2-2 |
| Jul 05 | Paris S… v Bayern … | 2-0 |
| May 31 | Paris S… v Inter | 5-0 |
| May 24 | Paris S… v Reims | 3-0 |
| May 17 | Paris S… v Auxerre | 3-1 |
Head-to-Head (8)
| Mar 16, 2025 | Paris Saint G… | 3-1 | Marseille |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Marseille | 0-3 | Paris Saint G… |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Marseille | 0-2 | Paris Saint G… |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Paris Saint G… | 4-0 | Marseille |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Marseille | 0-3 | Paris Saint G… |
| Feb 08, 2023 | Marseille | 2-1 | Paris Saint G… |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Paris Saint G… | 1-0 | Marseille |
| Apr 17, 2022 | Paris Saint G… | 2-1 | Marseille |
Key Factors
Paris Saint Germain in strong form (5W in last 5)
Marseille struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.