AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primera División Mar 28, 2025

Alianza Atlético

Home
VS
20:30

Cusco

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Alianza Atlético Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Cusco Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 91%
Standings 78%
Market 50%
Combined: 55% Draw Risk: 36%
xG: 1.99 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.0 vs 0.2 Position gap: 9 places
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Alianza Atlético Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
14%
1 goals:
27%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
9%
Cusco Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (22%) 2-0 (22%) 3-0 (15%) 0-0 (11%) 1-1 (4%) 2-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 16%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Under 2.5 Goals 64%
Alianza Atlético Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 08 Alianza A… vs UTC 0-0
Nov 02 Alianza A… vs Carlos A.… 2-2
Oct 28 Alianza A… vs Cultural … 1-0
Oct 24 Alianza A… vs Cienciano 3-0
Oct 19 Alianza A… vs Sporting … 1-0
Sep 28 Alianza A… vs ADT 0-1
Sep 23 Alianza A… vs Comercian… 1-0
Aug 15 Alianza A… vs Cusco 1-1
May 19 Alianza A… vs Cultural … 2-0
Mar 07 Alianza A… vs Cusco 2-0
Cusco Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 03 Cusco vs Alianza L… 1-2
Oct 28 Cusco vs Atletico … 0-1
Oct 24 Cusco vs Carlos A.… 4-1
Oct 17 Cusco vs Cultural … 2-1
Sep 28 Cusco vs Cienciano 1-2
Sep 22 Cusco vs Sporting … 1-1
Aug 20 Cusco vs Universit… 1-1
Aug 15 Cusco vs Alianza A… 1-1
Aug 05 Cusco vs Sport Boys 3-1
Apr 21 Cusco vs Sporting … 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Cusco in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 15, 2024 Alianza Atlético 1 - 1 Cusco Primera Divisi…
Mar 07, 2024 Cusco 2 - 0 Alianza Atlético Primera Divisi…
Jul 22, 2023 Alianza Atlético 2 - 0 Cusco Primera Divisi…
Feb 19, 2023 Cusco 2 - 1 Alianza Atlético Primera Divisi…
Aug 08, 2021 Cusco 3 - 0 Alianza Atlético Primera Divisi…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Alianza Atlético to win (45% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 45% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Alianza Atlético Power 0
Cusco Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Alianza Atlético Position

+9

Position Gap

14

Cusco Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.