AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga Premier Serie A Sep 21, 2025

Celaya

Home
VS
01:00

Deportiva Venados

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Celaya Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Deportiva Venados Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 86%
Standings 59%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 33%
xG: 2.23 - 0.76
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.2 vs 0.8
High draw risk (33%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Celaya Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
11%
1 goals:
24%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
11%
Deportiva Venados Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
47%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
14%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (13%) 1-0 (11%) 2-1 (10%) 3-0 (9%) 1-1 (9%) 3-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Under 2.5 Goals 45%
Celaya Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 14 Celaya vs Neza 3-2
Sep 07 Celaya vs Mexicali … 3-2
Aug 29 Celaya vs Cañoneros… 3-3
Aug 24 Celaya vs Pioneros … 3-1
Apr 27 Celaya vs CDS Tampi… 0-0
Apr 24 Celaya vs CDS Tampi… 1-0
Apr 20 Celaya vs Tapatío 1-0
Apr 13 Celaya vs Leones Ne… 2-3
Apr 06 Celaya vs Tlaxcala 0-3
Mar 30 Celaya vs Alebrijes… 3-0
Deportiva Venados Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 20 Deportiva… vs Aguacater… 1-3
Sep 13 Deportiva… vs Chapuline… 5-1
Sep 07 Deportiva… vs Racing Po… 1-0
Aug 30 Deportiva… vs Pachuca 3-1
Aug 30 Deportiva… vs Artesanos… 2-1
Aug 24 Deportiva… vs Caja Obla… 2-2
Mar 30 Deportiva… vs Artesanos… 2-1
Mar 23 Deportiva… vs Caja Obla… 4-2
Mar 01 Deportiva… vs Racing Po… 0-1
Feb 15 Deportiva… vs CDM 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Deportiva Venados in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Celaya to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Celaya Power 0
Deportiva Venados Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Celaya Position

+1

Position Gap

3

Deportiva Venados Position
Home Win Rate: 75%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.