AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primera A Mar 22, 2025

Atlético Nacional

Home
VS
22:45

Independiente Medellin

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Atlético Nacional Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Independiente Medellin Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 81%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 54% Draw Risk: 48%
xG: 1.67 - 0.56
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.7 vs 0.6 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (48%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Atlético Nacional Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
19%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
15%
4 goals:
6%
Independiente Medellin Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
57%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
9%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (18%) 2-0 (15%) 0-0 (11%) 1-1 (10%) 2-1 (8%) 3-0 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 35%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Under 2.5 Goals 62%
Atlético Nacional Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 10 Atlético … vs America d… 1-0
Dec 22 Atlético … vs Deportes … 2-0
Dec 19 Atlético … vs Deportes … 1-1
Dec 15 Atlético … vs America d… 0-0
Dec 13 Atlético … vs America d… 3-1
Dec 09 Atlético … vs Santa Fe 0-3
Dec 05 Atlético … vs Deportivo… 2-1
Dec 03 Atlético … vs Millonari… 1-1
Nov 30 Atlético … vs Millonari… 2-1
Nov 24 Atlético … vs Deportivo… 0-1
Independiente Medellin Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 16 Independi… vs Deportivo… 0-0
Mar 04 Independi… vs Deportivo… 1-0
Feb 16 Independi… vs Millonari… 0-1
Feb 09 Independi… vs Envigado 0-1
Nov 18 Independi… vs Atlético … 1-0
Nov 15 Independi… vs Envigado 1-0
Nov 11 Independi… vs Atlético … 1-1
Nov 01 Independi… vs Atlético … 2-0
Oct 26 Independi… vs Chico 3-0
Oct 23 Independi… vs Chico 1-4
Key Analysis Factors
  • Atlético Nacional in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Independiente Medellin in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Nov 18, 2024 Independiente Medel… 1 - 0 Atlético Nacional Copa Colombia
Nov 11, 2024 Atlético Nacional 1 - 1 Independiente Medel… Primera A
Nov 01, 2024 Atlético Nacional 2 - 0 Independiente Medel… Copa Colombia
Jul 03, 2024 Independiente Medel… 1 - 2 Atlético Nacional Liga Femenina
Jun 19, 2024 Atlético Nacional 2 - 2 Independiente Medel… Liga Femenina
Apr 22, 2024 Independiente Medel… 2 - 2 Atlético Nacional Primera A
Dec 03, 2023 Atlético Nacional 0 - 5 Independiente Medel… Primera A
Nov 19, 2023 Independiente Medel… 2 - 1 Atlético Nacional Primera A
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Atlético Nacional to win (63% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 63% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Atlético Nacional Power 0
Independiente Medellin Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

6

Atlético Nacional Position

+11

Position Gap

17

Independiente Medellin Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.