Primera DivisiĂłn - Apertura · Mar 21, 2026 13:00
Racing Club de Montevideo
PWR 35
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 35
Racing Club de Montevideo
PWR 35
0 - 0
FT
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 35
47%
25%
28%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Racing Club de Montevideo to win (61% confidence)
Score
1-0
Confidence
61%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
0-0 (29%)0-1 (23%)1-0 (13%)1-1 (10%)0-2 (9%)1-2 (4%)
WRONG 0-0
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.57x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.64x
Over 2.5
13%
Under 2.5
87%
87%
BTTS
No
No 20%
Over 3.5
5%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Racing Club de…
WWLWW
STABLE
Peñarol Montev…
DWWDW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateH2H: 4/10 draws (40%) = VERY HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw risk
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.0
Expected Goals (xG)
0.45
Racing Club de…vs
0.78
Peñarol Montev…Goal Probability
Racing Club…
0
64%
1
29%
2
7%
3
1%
4
0%
Peñarol Mon…
0
46%
1
36%
2
14%
3
4%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (25%)1-0 (21%)0-1 (14%)1-1 (12%)2-0 (8%)2-1 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 75% | 25% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 40% | 60% | - |
| 2.5 | 16% | 84% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Racing Club…+2
Gap#3
Peñarol Mon…
WR 67% 13 pts
WR 67% 13 pts
Racing Club de…
16.0%
| Mar 14 | Racing … v Boston … | 0-1 |
| Mar 08 | Racing … v Cerrito | 1-0 |
| Mar 05 | Racing … v Boston … | 1-0 |
| Feb 28 | Racing … v Albion … | 1-3 |
| Feb 21 | Racing … v Danubio | 4-0 |
| Feb 14 | Racing … v Club Na… | 1-1 |
| Feb 08 | Racing … v Deporti… | 2-4 |
| Jan 20 | Racing … v Peñarol… | 1-0 |
| Jan 15 | Racing … v Cerrito | 2-1 |
| Nov 07 | Racing … v Miramar | 0-2 |
Peñarol Montev…
16.0%
| Mar 16 | Peñarol… v Atletic… | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | Peñarol… v Albion … | 0-1 |
| Mar 10 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Peñarol… v Danubio | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Peñarol… v Club Na… | 0-1 |
| Mar 01 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 2-0 |
| Feb 25 | Peñarol… v Indepen… | 0-0 |
| Feb 22 | Peñarol… v Deporti… | 2-1 |
| Feb 20 | Peñarol… v Cerrito | 1-1 |
| Feb 18 | Peñarol… v Indepen… | 1-2 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Jan 20, 2026 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-0 | Racing Club d… |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-2 | Racing Club d… |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Racing Club d… | 1-4 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Mar 09, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 0-2 | Racing Club d… |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 0-0 | Racing Club d… |
| Jun 16, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-1 | Racing Club d… |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Racing Club d… | 1-2 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Dec 02, 2023 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-1 | Racing Club d… |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-3 | Racing Club d… |
| May 08, 2023 | Racing Club d… | 0-2 | Peñarol Monte… |
Decision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player
40%
Momentum
47%
Standings
53%
Market
41%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Racing Club de Montevideo in strong form (4W in last 5)
Peñarol Montevideo in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.