Primera División - Apertura · Mar 21, 2026 22:30
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 35
Cerrito
PWR 45
Peñarol Montevideo
PWR 35
2-1
predicted
Cerrito
PWR 45
63%
21%
16%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Peñarol Montevideo Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (22%)1-0 (21%)3-0 (15%)0-0 (10%)2-1 (4%)1-1 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
62%
BTTS
No
No 16%
Over 3.5
3%
Team Comparison
0Attack29
100Defense71
Goals/G
0.00.8
Conc/G
0.00.8
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Peñarol Montev…
DWWDW
STABLE
Cerrito
LLDDL
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk30%
Accuracy38%
POINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)Home team draws 33% at home = very high riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (29.6%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.08
Peñarol Montev…vs
0.20
CerritoGoal Probability
Peñarol Mon…
0
13%
1
26%
2
27%
3
19%
4
10%
Cerrito
0
82%
1
16%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (33%)1-0 (28%)2-0 (12%)0-1 (9%)1-1 (8%)3-0 (3%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 67% | 33% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 30% | 70% | UNDER |
| 2.5 | 10% | 90% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 100% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Peñarol Mon…+4
Gap#5
Cerrito
WR 54% 146 pts
WR 33% 42 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peñarol Monte… | 79 | 43 | 17 | 19 | 105 | 62 | 146 |
| Cerrito | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 27 | 27 | 42 |
Peñarol Montev…
16.0%
| Mar 16 | Peñarol… v Atletic… | 0-0 |
| Mar 14 | Peñarol… v Albion … | 0-1 |
| Mar 10 | Peñarol… v Boston … | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Peñarol… v Danubio | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Peñarol… v Club Na… | 0-1 |
| Mar 01 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 2-0 |
| Feb 25 | Peñarol… v Indepen… | 0-0 |
| Feb 22 | Peñarol… v Deporti… | 2-1 |
| Feb 20 | Peñarol… v Cerrito | 1-1 |
| Feb 18 | Peñarol… v Indepen… | 1-2 |
Cerrito
4.0%
| Mar 14 | Cerrito v Progreso | 0-1 |
| Mar 08 | Cerrito v Racing … | 1-0 |
| Feb 27 | Cerrito v Boston … | 1-1 |
| Feb 20 | Cerrito v Peñarol… | 1-1 |
| Feb 16 | Cerrito v Albion … | 3-0 |
| Feb 09 | Cerrito v Danubio | 0-1 |
| Jan 15 | Cerrito v Racing … | 2-1 |
| Nov 09 | Cerrito v Boston … | 0-0 |
| Nov 01 | Cerrito v Club Na… | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Cerrito v Colón | 1-0 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Feb 20, 2026 | Cerrito | 1-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Cerrito | 2-0 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Cerrito | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| May 25, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 0-0 | Cerrito |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Cerrito |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Cerrito | 1-3 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 0-1 | Cerrito |
| Jun 03, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 0-3 | Cerrito |
| Nov 24, 2023 | Cerrito | 0-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jul 08, 2023 | Cerrito | 1-0 | Peñarol Monte… |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
92%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Peñarol Montevideo in strong form (3W in last 5)
Cerrito struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.