Virsliga · Mar 22, 2026 12:00
Tukums
PWR 35
Super Nova
PWR 35
Tukums
PWR 35
0 - 2
FT
Super Nova
PWR 35
47%
25%
28%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-1 (9%)1-1 (8%)3-1 (7%)2-0 (7%)2-2 (6%)1-0 (6%)
WRONG 0-2
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.54x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.74x
Over 2.5
68%
68%
Under 2.5
32%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 67%
Over 3.5
22%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Tukums
DLDDW
STABLE
Super Nova
DLLDW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk34%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateH2H: 2/4 draws (50%) = VERY HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 3/5 recent games
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.3
Expected Goals (xG)
2.25
Tukumsvs
1.40
Super NovaGoal Probability
Tukums
0
11%
1
24%
2
27%
3
20%
4
11%
Super Nova
0
25%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4
4%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (13%)1-0 (11%)0-1 (11%)0-0 (9%)2-1 (8%)1-2 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91% | 9% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 43% | 58% | - |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#8
Tukums-1
Gap#7
Super Nova
WR 0% 1 pts
WR 0% 1 pts
Tukums
10.0%
| Mar 15 | Tukums v Ogre Un… | 1-1 |
| Mar 08 | Tukums v FS Jelg… | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | Tukums v Panevėž… | 0-0 |
| Nov 09 | Tukums v FS Jelg… | 1-1 |
| Nov 02 | Tukums v Auda | 0-1 |
| Oct 26 | Tukums v Kooteep… | 2-3 |
| Oct 24 | Tukums v Riga FC | 0-0 |
| Oct 23 | Tukums v Kooteep… | 3-0 |
| Oct 19 | Tukums v RÄ«gas FS | 2-4 |
| Oct 18 | Tukums v FC Lahti | 3-3 |
Super Nova
8.0%
| Mar 15 | Super N… v FS Jelg… | 1-1 |
| Mar 08 | Super N… v Auda | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Super N… v Paide | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Super N… v Kalju N… | 1-1 |
| Feb 11 | Super N… v Trans N… | 1-3 |
| Nov 09 | Super N… v FK Liep… | 3-0 |
| Nov 02 | Super N… v Rīgas FS | 1-3 |
| Oct 25 | Super N… v BFC Dau… | 2-2 |
| Oct 18 | Super N… v Grobiņa | 0-0 |
| Oct 04 | Super N… v FS Jelg… | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Sep 28, 2025 | Tukums | 2-1 | Super Nova |
| Jul 06, 2025 | Super Nova | 1-0 | Tukums |
| May 16, 2025 | Super Nova | 1-1 | Tukums |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Tukums | 2-2 | Super Nova |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
78%
Standings
48%
Market
45%
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.