Premier League · Mar 22, 2026 10:45
Orenburg
PWR 35
Spartak Moscow
PWR 35
Orenburg
PWR 35
0 - 2
FT
Spartak Moscow
PWR 35
47%
25%
28%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Orenburg Win
Score
1-2
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (12%)2-0 (8%)3-1 (4%)1-0 (4%)2-1 (3%)1-1 (1%)
WRONG 0-2
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
2.22x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.36x
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
BTTS
No
No 26%
Over 3.5
37%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Orenburg
LWLWW
STABLE
Spartak Moscow
WLDWD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_LEAKING
Full data available (Tier 1)WR diff only 3% = 35.1% draw rateHome team draws 46% at home = very high riskH2H: 3/10 draws (30%) = HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskCombined DR 66% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (31.3%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
4.50
Orenburgvs
0.31
Spartak MoscowGoal Probability
Orenburg
0
1%
1
5%
2
11%
3
17%
4
19%
Spartak Mos…
0
73%
1
23%
2
4%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (10%)1-2 (10%)0-1 (9%)0-2 (9%)1-3 (7%)0-3 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% | 5% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% | - |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% | - |
| 4.5 | 20% | 80% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 4% | 96% | UNDER |
League Position
#15
Orenburg-9
Gap#6
Spartak Mos…
WR 27% 18 pts
WR 30% 35 pts
Orenburg
12.0%
| Mar 13 | Orenburg v Makhach… | 1-0 |
| Mar 08 | Orenburg v Zenit S… | 2-1 |
| Mar 04 | Orenburg v Krylya … | 2-0 |
| Feb 28 | Orenburg v Akron | 2-0 |
| Feb 20 | Orenburg v Rubin | 1-0 |
| Dec 05 | Orenburg v Akhmat … | 1-0 |
| Nov 29 | Orenburg v CSKA Mo… | 2-0 |
| Nov 26 | Orenburg v Krasnod… | 4-0 |
| Nov 22 | Orenburg v Baltika | 0-0 |
| Nov 09 | Orenburg v Lokomot… | 1-0 |
Spartak Moscow
12.0%
| Mar 18 | Spartak… v Dinamo … | 1-0 |
| Mar 14 | Spartak… v Zenit S… | 2-0 |
| Mar 14 | Spartak… v Chayka | 1-1 |
| Mar 09 | Spartak… v Akron | 4-3 |
| Mar 07 | Spartak… v Chelyab… | 3-3 |
| Mar 05 | Spartak… v Dinamo … | 5-2 |
| Mar 02 | Spartak… v PFC Soc… | 2-3 |
| Feb 28 | Spartak… v Rotor V… | 1-1 |
| Feb 21 | Spartak… v FC Rost… | 5-2 |
| Feb 18 | Spartak… v FC Porto | 3-1 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Oct 25, 2025 | Spartak Moscow | 1-0 | Orenburg |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Orenburg | 0-2 | Spartak Moscow |
| Aug 04, 2024 | Spartak Moscow | 5-1 | Orenburg |
| May 25, 2024 | Orenburg | 0-0 | Spartak Moscow |
| Mar 14, 2024 | Spartak Moscow | 3-1 | Orenburg |
| Mar 02, 2024 | Spartak Moscow | 1-1 | Orenburg |
| Nov 29, 2023 | Orenburg | 1-0 | Spartak Moscow |
| Nov 02, 2023 | Spartak Moscow | 3-1 | Orenburg |
| Aug 25, 2023 | Orenburg | 1-1 | Spartak Moscow |
| Jul 26, 2023 | Orenburg | 0-6 | Spartak Moscow |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
32%
Market
35%
High draw risk (51%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Orenburg in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.