Paulista - A4 · Mar 21, 2026 22:00
Grêmio Sãocarlense
PWR 35
PWR 35
0-1
predicted
Penedense
PWR 53
PWR 53
43%
25%
32%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Penedense to win (60% confidence)
Score
0-1
Confidence
60%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (25%)0-0 (20%)2-0 (15%)1-1 (9%)0-1 (7%)3-0 (6%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
21%
Under 2.5
79%
79%
BTTS
No
No 21%
Over 3.5
4%
Team Comparison
0Attack46
100Defense65
Goals/G
0.01.3
Conc/G
0.01.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Grêmio Sãocarl…
LLWLD
DOWN
Penedense
DWDLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): Paulista
Expected Goals (xG)
1.23
Grêmio Sãocarl…vs
0.36
PenedenseGoal Probability
Grêmio Sãoc…
0
29%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4
3%
Penedense
0
70%
1
25%
2
5%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (29%)1-0 (22%)0-1 (14%)1-1 (11%)2-0 (8%)2-1 (4%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 71% | 29% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 35% | 65% | UNDER |
| 2.5 | 13% | 87% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 4% | 96% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#7
Grêmio Sãoc…-2
Gap#5
Penedense
WR 30% 29 pts
WR 47% 32 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio Sãocar… | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 29 |
| Penedense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 19 | 32 |
Grêmio Sãocarl…
6.0%
| Mar 18 | Grêmio … v Taquari… | 1-0 |
| Mar 14 | Grêmio … v Jabaqua… | 3-1 |
| Mar 07 | Grêmio … v Vocem | 1-0 |
| Mar 04 | Grêmio … v Barretos | 0-1 |
| Feb 28 | Grêmio … v Colorad… | 1-1 |
| Feb 25 | Grêmio … v Tanabi | 2-1 |
| Feb 21 | Grêmio … v Inter d… | 2-2 |
| Feb 14 | Grêmio … v Comerci… | 1-0 |
| Feb 10 | Grêmio … v ECUS | 1-1 |
| Feb 07 | Grêmio … v Naciona… | 0-1 |
Penedense
8.0%
| Mar 18 | Peneden… v Zumbi | 2-2 |
| Mar 14 | Peneden… v Naciona… | 0-2 |
| Mar 07 | Peneden… v Inter d… | 0-0 |
| Mar 04 | Peneden… v EC Leme… | 1-0 |
| Mar 02 | Peneden… v ASA | 0-1 |
| Feb 28 | Peneden… v Vocem | 0-0 |
| Feb 25 | Peneden… v Taquari… | 3-0 |
| Feb 25 | Peneden… v Londrina | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Peneden… v São Cae… | 0-2 |
| Feb 21 | Peneden… v Figueir… | 0-1 |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
78%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Grêmio Sãocarlense struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.