Primera C · Mar 21, 2026 18:30
El Porvenir
PWR 36
Mercedes
PWR 43
El Porvenir
PWR 36
1 - 1
FT
Mercedes
PWR 43
39%
26%
35%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (15%)1-1 (13%)0-0 (11%)0-1 (10%)2-0 (9%)2-1 (8%)
WRONG 1-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.41x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.81x
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
63%
BTTS
No 43%
Over 3.5
2%
Team Comparison
29Attack30
57Defense64
Goals/G
0.80.9
Conc/G
1.21.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
El Porvenir
DDDLD
STABLE
Mercedes
LWWLD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityHome team drew 4/5 recent games
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.28
El Porvenirvs
0.89
MercedesGoal Probability
El Porvenir
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
Mercedes
0
41%
1
37%
2
16%
3
5%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (34%)0-1 (19%)1-0 (18%)1-1 (10%)0-2 (5%)2-0 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 66% | 34% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 29% | 71% | UNDER |
| 2.5 | 10% | 90% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 100% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#19
El Porvenir-4
Gap#15
Mercedes
WR 22% 44 pts
WR 33% 52 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Porvenir | 46 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 38 | 57 | 44 |
| Mercedes | 43 | 14 | 10 | 19 | 37 | 44 | 52 |
El Porvenir
8.0%
| Mar 14 | El Porv… v Lujan | 1-1 |
| Mar 09 | El Porv… v Leones … | 0-0 |
| Mar 01 | El Porv… v General… | 1-1 |
| Oct 03 | El Porv… v Lujan | 1-0 |
| Sep 27 | El Porv… v Lujan | 1-1 |
| Sep 16 | El Porv… v Puerto … | 1-2 |
| Sep 05 | El Porv… v Lujan | 2-1 |
| Aug 29 | El Porv… v Berazat… | 0-0 |
| Aug 24 | El Porv… v Ituzain… | 1-1 |
| Aug 18 | El Porv… v Deporti… | 0-2 |
Mercedes
10.0%
| Mar 14 | Mercedes v Victori… | 1-0 |
| Mar 01 | Mercedes v Centro … | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Mercedes v JJ Urqu… | 0-2 |
| Nov 22 | Mercedes v Deporti… | 2-1 |
| Nov 14 | Mercedes v Deporti… | 0-0 |
| Oct 19 | Mercedes v Atlétic… | 1-1 |
| Oct 13 | Mercedes v Atlétic… | 1-2 |
| Oct 03 | Mercedes v Deporti… | 2-0 |
| Sep 26 | Mercedes v Deporti… | 0-0 |
| Sep 16 | Mercedes v Leandro… | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Jun 27, 2025 | Mercedes | 0-0 | El Porvenir |
| Mar 18, 2025 | El Porvenir | 2-1 | Mercedes |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
65%
Standings
50%
Market
47%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.