Super League · Mar 21, 2026 12:00
Nzoia Sugar FC
PWR 35
Mathare United
PWR 43
Nzoia Sugar FC
PWR 35
2 - 1
FT
Mathare United
PWR 43
49%
24%
27%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Nzoia Sugar FC Win
Score
1-2
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
0-0 (54%)0-1 (17%)1-0 (16%)1-1 (5%)0-2 (3%)2-0 (2%)
CORRECT 2-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
86%
Home/Draw
1.22x
DC X2
Away/Draw
2.56x
Over 2.5
2%
Under 2.5
98%
98%
BTTS
No
No 7%
Over 3.5
13%
Team Comparison
0Attack41
100Defense54
Goals/G
0.01.2
Conc/G
0.01.3
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Nzoia Sugar FC
DDDWL
STABLE
Mathare United
LDLWL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk30%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Home team draws 50% at home = very high riskHome team drew 3/5 recent gamesCombined DR 75% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (30.3%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.30
Nzoia Sugar FCvs
0.31
Mathare UnitedGoal Probability
Nzoia Sugar…
0
74%
1
22%
2
3%
3
0%
4
0%
Mathare Uni…
0
73%
1
23%
2
4%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (19%)0-0 (15%)2-0 (13%)1-1 (12%)0-1 (9%)2-1 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 86% | 15% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 58% | 43% | - |
| 2.5 | 30% | 70% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#14
Nzoia Sugar…-6
Gap#8
Mathare Uni…
WR 27% 44 pts
WR 33% 62 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nzoia Sugar FC | 34 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 44 |
| Mathare United | 49 | 16 | 14 | 19 | 58 | 64 | 62 |
Nzoia Sugar FC
10.0%
| Mar 14 | Nzoia S… v Equity … | 0-0 |
| Mar 08 | Nzoia S… v Kisumu … | 0-0 |
| Mar 01 | Nzoia S… v Nairobi… | 0-0 |
| Feb 20 | Nzoia S… v Vihiga … | 0-4 |
| Feb 15 | Nzoia S… v Gucha S… | 0-2 |
| Jan 31 | Nzoia S… v Equity … | 1-0 |
| Jan 25 | Nzoia S… v MOFA | 1-1 |
| Jan 18 | Nzoia S… v Soy Uni… | 0-2 |
| Jan 12 | Nzoia S… v Darajan… | 1-4 |
| Dec 22 | Nzoia S… v Migori … | 1-0 |
Mathare United
6.0%
| Mar 14 | Mathare… v Kisumu … | 0-1 |
| Mar 14 | Mathare… v AFC Leo… | 0-0 |
| Feb 28 | Mathare… v Gor Mah… | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Mathare… v Gucha S… | 3-1 |
| Feb 25 | Mathare… v Shabana | 0-1 |
| Feb 22 | Mathare… v Kabati … | 2-0 |
| Feb 21 | Mathare… v Karioba… | 1-1 |
| Feb 15 | Mathare… v Darajan… | 2-2 |
| Feb 14 | Mathare… v Tusker | 3-1 |
| Feb 01 | Mathare… v Kisumu … | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Oct 04, 2025 | Mathare United | 2-2 | Nzoia Sugar FC |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Mathare United | 0-0 | Nzoia Sugar FC |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
50%
Market
62%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Mathare United struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.