Challenge League · Mar 21, 2026 17:00
FC Aarau
PWR 35
Neuchâtel Xamax
PWR 35
FC Aarau
PWR 35
1 - 0
FT
Neuchâtel Xamax
PWR 35
49%
24%
27%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
FC Aarau Win
Score
3-1
Confidence
37%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
2-1 (9%)2-0 (9%)3-1 (8%)3-0 (8%)1-1 (6%)1-0 (6%)
CORRECT 1-0
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
81%
Home/Draw
1.3x
DC X2
Away/Draw
2.43x
Over 2.5
67%
67%
Under 2.5
33%
BTTS
Yes 60%
Over 3.5
52%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
FC Aarau
LWWWD
STABLE
Neuchâtel Xamax
WDDLW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk22%
Accuracy38%
POINTS_GAP
Full data available (Tier 1)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskElevated draw risk (21.5%) - consider AHBelow minimum tier (need PREMIUM+, got SKIP/1 rules)
Expected Goals (xG)
2.79
FC Aarauvs
1.01
Neuchâtel XamaxGoal Probability
FC Aarau
0
6%
1
17%
2
24%
3
22%
4
16%
Neuchâtel X…
0
36%
1
37%
2
19%
3
6%
4
2%
CORRECT SCORES
2-1 (9%)1-1 (8%)3-1 (8%)2-0 (7%)2-2 (6%)1-0 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% | - |
| 4.5 | 32% | 68% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 18% | 82% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
FC Aarau+3
Gap#5
Neuchâtel X…
WR 77% 59 pts
WR 31% 33 pts
FC Aarau
14.0%
| Mar 14 | FC Aarau v Zürich … | 0-2 |
| Mar 13 | FC Aarau v FC Vaduz | 2-0 |
| Mar 06 | FC Aarau v Étoile … | 0-3 |
| Feb 27 | FC Aarau v Rappers… | 5-3 |
| Feb 20 | FC Aarau v Stade N… | 1-1 |
| Feb 20 | FC Aarau v Luzern … | 2-3 |
| Feb 14 | FC Aarau v Servett… | 0-3 |
| Feb 13 | FC Aarau v Stade L… | 4-2 |
| Feb 07 | FC Aarau v FC WIL … | 2-2 |
| Feb 07 | FC Aarau v Young B… | 3-0 |
Neuchâtel Xamax
12.0%
| Mar 15 | Neuchât… v Rappers… | 3-2 |
| Mar 06 | Neuchât… v Stade N… | 0-0 |
| Mar 01 | Neuchât… v FC WIL … | 0-0 |
| Feb 22 | Neuchât… v FC Vaduz | 1-0 |
| Feb 13 | Neuchât… v Étoile … | 1-3 |
| Feb 08 | Neuchât… v Stade L… | 3-0 |
| Feb 03 | Neuchât… v Yverdon… | 1-2 |
| Jan 30 | Neuchât… v Bellinz… | 5-0 |
| Jan 25 | Neuchât… v Yverdon… | 1-2 |
| Jan 21 | Neuchât… v Bulle | 3-1 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Nov 28, 2025 | Neuchâtel Xam… | 1-2 | FC Aarau |
| Aug 09, 2025 | FC Aarau | 2-0 | Neuchâtel Xam… |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Neuchâtel Xam… | 1-1 | FC Aarau |
| Mar 07, 2025 | FC Aarau | 2-0 | Neuchâtel Xam… |
| Dec 13, 2024 | Neuchâtel Xam… | 1-3 | FC Aarau |
| Aug 03, 2024 | FC Aarau | 1-3 | Neuchâtel Xam… |
| Apr 12, 2024 | Neuchâtel Xam… | 3-1 | FC Aarau |
| Mar 01, 2024 | FC Aarau | 2-0 | Neuchâtel Xam… |
| Dec 15, 2023 | Neuchâtel Xam… | 2-1 | FC Aarau |
| Aug 06, 2023 | FC Aarau | 2-3 | Neuchâtel Xam… |
Decision Breakdown
M85+S60 (75.3%)HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
91%
Standings
68%
Market
60%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
FC Aarau in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.