Ligue 1 · Mar 21, 2026 16:00
Toulouse
PWR 39
Lorient
PWR 33
Toulouse
PWR 39
1 - 0
FT
Lorient
PWR 33
41%
26%
33%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Toulouse Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
0-0 (30%)1-0 (21%)0-1 (15%)1-1 (11%)2-0 (8%)2-1 (4%)
CORRECT 1-0
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.34x
DC X2
Away/Draw
2.04x
Over 2.5
12%
Under 2.5
88%
88%
BTTS
No
No 20%
Over 3.5
16%
Team Comparison
47Attack41
66Defense54
Goals/G
1.61.4
Conc/G
1.21.6
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Toulouse
WLDLD
STABLE
Lorient
WDDDD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk39%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 38% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateH2H: 3/5 draws (60%) = VERY HIGH riskAway team drew 4/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesCombined DR 77% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (38.5%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.71
Toulousevs
0.50
LorientGoal Probability
Toulouse
0
49%
1
35%
2
12%
3
3%
4
1%
Lorient
0
61%
1
30%
2
8%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (14%)0-1 (13%)1-0 (13%)0-0 (13%)0-2 (7%)1-2 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 88% | 13% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 62% | 39% | - |
| 2.5 | 35% | 66% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#11
Toulouse-2
Gap#9
Lorient
WR 31% 34 pts
WR 15% 37 pts
Toulouse
8.0%
| Mar 15 | Toulouse v Metz | 3-4 |
| Mar 07 | Toulouse v Olympiq… | 0-1 |
| Mar 04 | Toulouse v Olympiq… | 2-2 |
| Feb 28 | Toulouse v Rennes … | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Toulouse v Paris FC | 1-1 |
| Feb 15 | Toulouse v LE Havr… | 2-1 |
| Feb 08 | Toulouse v Angers | 1-0 |
| Feb 04 | Toulouse v Amiens | 1-0 |
| Feb 01 | Toulouse v Auxerre | 0-0 |
| Jan 25 | Toulouse v Stade B… | 0-2 |
Lorient
12.0%
| Mar 14 | Lorient v Lens | 2-1 |
| Mar 08 | Lorient v Lille | 1-1 |
| Mar 04 | Lorient v Nice | 0-0 |
| Mar 01 | Lorient v Auxerre | 2-2 |
| Feb 22 | Lorient v Nice | 3-3 |
| Feb 15 | Lorient v Angers | 2-0 |
| Feb 07 | Lorient v Stade B… | 2-0 |
| Feb 04 | Lorient v Paris FC | 2-0 |
| Jan 31 | Lorient v Nantes | 2-1 |
| Jan 24 | Lorient v Rennes … | 0-2 |
Head-to-Head (5)
| Nov 09, 2025 | Lorient | 1-1 | Toulouse |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Lorient | 1-2 | Toulouse |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Lorient | 1-2 | Toulouse |
| Dec 03, 2023 | Toulouse | 1-1 | Lorient |
| Dec 03, 2023 | Toulouse | 1-1 | Lorient |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
46%
Market
53%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.