Premier League · Mar 21, 2026 14:30
GAP Connah S Quay FC
PWR 35
Penybont
PWR 35
GAP Connah S Quay FC
PWR 35
2 - 1
FT
Penybont
PWR 35
53%
23%
24%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
GAP Connah S Quay FC Win
Score
4-2
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (12%)2-0 (8%)3-1 (5%)1-0 (4%)2-1 (3%)1-1 (2%)
CORRECT 2-1
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
81%
Home/Draw
1.3x
DC X2
Away/Draw
2.4x
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
BTTS
No
No 33%
Over 3.5
40%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
GAP Connah S Q…
WLLDD
STABLE
Penybont
LLLDL
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk25%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateH2H: 1/3 draws (33%) = HIGH riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (25.1%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
4.36
GAP Connah S Q…vs
0.41
PenybontGoal Probability
GAP Connah …
0
1%
1
6%
2
12%
3
18%
4
19%
Penybont
0
66%
1
27%
2
6%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (14%)3-0 (12%)1-0 (11%)4-0 (8%)2-1 (8%)3-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96% | 4% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% | - |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% | - |
| 4.5 | 22% | 78% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 11% | 89% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
GAP Connah …+1
Gap#3
Penybont
WR 64% 47 pts
WR 55% 38 pts
GAP Connah S Q…
8.0%
| Mar 13 | GAP Con… v Caernar… | 2-4 |
| Mar 03 | GAP Con… v The New… | 1-2 |
| Feb 21 | GAP Con… v Bala To… | 1-0 |
| Feb 14 | GAP Con… v Penybont | 0-0 |
| Feb 06 | GAP Con… v Caernar… | 1-1 |
| Jan 24 | GAP Con… v Colwyn … | 2-2 |
| Jan 13 | GAP Con… v Caernar… | 2-2 |
| Jan 03 | GAP Con… v Bala To… | 3-1 |
| Dec 31 | GAP Con… v The New… | 3-1 |
| Dec 26 | GAP Con… v Flint T… | 0-2 |
Penybont
2.0%
| Mar 14 | Penybont v The New… | 1-2 |
| Mar 03 | Penybont v Bala To… | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Penybont v Colwyn … | 3-1 |
| Feb 14 | Penybont v GAP Con… | 0-0 |
| Feb 07 | Penybont v The New… | 6-0 |
| Jan 24 | Penybont v Caernar… | 0-0 |
| Jan 13 | Penybont v Cardiff… | 1-1 |
| Jan 01 | Penybont v Llanell… | 0-1 |
| Dec 26 | Penybont v Briton … | 1-1 |
| Dec 13 | Penybont v Flint T… | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Feb 14, 2026 | Penybont | 0-0 | GAP Connah S … |
| Nov 08, 2025 | GAP Connah S … | 4-0 | Penybont |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Penybont | 0-1 | GAP Connah S … |
Decision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
54%
Market
60%
High draw risk (50%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Penybont struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.