Championship · Mar 21, 2026 12:30
Derby
PWR 37
Birmingham
PWR 36
Derby
PWR 37
1 - 0
FT
Birmingham
PWR 36
55%
23%
22%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Derby Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (17%)2-0 (14%)1-0 (7%)3-1 (3%)2-1 (3%)0-0 (2%)
CORRECT 1-0
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.7x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.57x
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
BTTS
No
No 18%
Over 3.5
49%
Team Comparison
44Attack41
63Defense62
Goals/G
1.51.4
Conc/G
1.21.3
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Derby
WLWWL
STABLE
Birmingham
DLWLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk26%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_LEAKING
Full data available (Tier 1)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 32% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw rateH2H: 2/6 draws (33%) = HIGH riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (26.0%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
3.70
Derbyvs
0.20
BirminghamGoal Probability
Derby
0
3%
1
9%
2
17%
3
21%
4
19%
Birmingham
0
82%
1
16%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
3-0 (14%)2-0 (13%)4-0 (11%)1-0 (9%)5-0 (7%)3-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 88% | 13% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% | - |
| 4.5 | 30% | 71% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 16% | 84% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 7% | 93% | UNDER |
League Position
#8
Derby+2
Gap#10
Birmingham
WR 37% 57 pts
WR 26% 53 pts
Derby
12.0%
| Mar 16 | Derby v Portsmo… | 0-1 |
| Mar 10 | Derby v Millwall | 1-0 |
| Mar 07 | Derby v Sheffie… | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Derby v Blackbu… | 3-1 |
| Feb 24 | Derby v Hull Ci… | 4-2 |
| Feb 21 | Derby v Watford | 2-0 |
| Feb 14 | Derby v Swansea | 2-0 |
| Feb 07 | Derby v Ipswich | 1-2 |
| Jan 30 | Derby v Bristol… | 0-5 |
| Jan 23 | Derby v West Br… | 1-1 |
Birmingham
6.0%
| Mar 14 | Birming… v Sheffie… | 1-1 |
| Mar 14 | Birming… v Cambrid… | 5-0 |
| Mar 11 | Birming… v QPR | 1-0 |
| Mar 10 | Birming… v Milton … | 1-5 |
| Mar 07 | Birming… v Charlton | 1-0 |
| Mar 07 | Birming… v Fleetwo… | 1-1 |
| Mar 02 | Birming… v Middles… | 1-3 |
| Feb 28 | Birming… v Barrow | 0-1 |
| Feb 25 | Birming… v Millwall | 3-0 |
| Feb 21 | Birming… v Oldham | 0-3 |
Head-to-Head (6)
| Dec 26, 2025 | Birmingham | 1-1 | Derby |
| Jan 30, 2022 | Derby | 2-2 | Birmingham |
| Sep 10, 2021 | Birmingham | 2-0 | Derby |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Derby | 1-2 | Birmingham |
| Dec 29, 2020 | Birmingham | 0-4 | Derby |
| Jul 22, 2020 | Birmingham | 1-3 | Derby |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
56%
Market
38%
High draw risk (42%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Derby in strong form (3W in last 5)
Birmingham struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.