Primeira Liga · Mar 21, 2026 15:30
Famalicao
PWR 35
Nacional
PWR 35
Famalicao
PWR 35
1 - 0
FT
Nacional
PWR 35
63%
21%
16%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Famalicao Win
Score
3-1
Confidence
68%
TierGOLD
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (14%)2-0 (9%)1-0 (4%)3-1 (3%)2-1 (2%)0-0 (1%)
CORRECT 1-0
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
81%
Home/Draw
1.29x
DC X2
Away/Draw
2.46x
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
BTTS
No
No 18%
Over 3.5
14%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Famalicao
WWDWL
STABLE
Nacional
LDLLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy73%
FORM_DOMINANTPOSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAP
Full data available (Tier 1)H2H: 1/3 draws (33%) = HIGH riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (28.3%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
4.50
Famalicaovs
0.20
NacionalGoal Probability
Famalicao
0
1%
1
5%
2
11%
3
17%
4
19%
Nacional
0
82%
1
16%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (21%)2-0 (16%)0-0 (14%)1-1 (9%)3-0 (8%)2-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 87% | 14% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% | - |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#6
Famalicao+10
Gap#16
Nacional
WR 54% 42 pts
WR 15% 22 pts
Famalicao
14.0%
| Mar 14 | Famalic… v Guimara… | 1-2 |
| Mar 06 | Famalic… v Arouca | 1-0 |
| Mar 01 | Famalic… v Rio Ave… | 0-0 |
| Feb 23 | Famalic… v Casa Pi… | 2-0 |
| Feb 15 | Famalic… v Sportin… | 1-0 |
| Feb 09 | Famalic… v AVS | 3-1 |
| Feb 01 | Famalic… v GIL Vic… | 5-0 |
| Jan 25 | Famalic… v Tondela | 3-0 |
| Jan 18 | Famalic… v Santa C… | 0-1 |
| Jan 04 | Famalic… v Alverca | 1-0 |
Nacional
2.0%
| Mar 15 | Nacional v Estoril | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Nacional v Moreire… | 1-1 |
| Feb 28 | Nacional v SC Braga | 1-2 |
| Feb 21 | Nacional v Arouca | 3-0 |
| Feb 15 | Nacional v FC Porto | 0-1 |
| Feb 08 | Nacional v Casa Pi… | 0-0 |
| Feb 01 | Nacional v Sportin… | 2-1 |
| Jan 25 | Nacional v Rio Ave… | 4-0 |
| Jan 17 | Nacional v GIL Vic… | 2-1 |
| Jan 11 | Nacional v Santa C… | 3-3 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Nov 01, 2025 | Nacional | 0-1 | Famalicao |
| Mar 01, 2025 | Nacional | 2-1 | Famalicao |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Famalicao | 0-0 | Nacional |
Decision Breakdown
M85+S60 (75.3%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
80%
Market
61%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Famalicao in strong form (3W in last 5)
Nacional struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.