Primeira Liga · Mar 21, 2026 15:30
Moreirense
PWR 35
Arouca
PWR 35
Moreirense
PWR 35
0 - 1
FT
Arouca
PWR 35
53%
23%
24%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Moreirense Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (20%)0-0 (19%)1-1 (12%)0-1 (11%)2-0 (11%)2-1 (6%)
WRONG 0-1
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.54x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.71x
Over 2.5
23%
Under 2.5
77%
77%
BTTS
No
No 30%
Over 3.5
16%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Moreirense
WDWLL
STABLE
Arouca
LLLWL
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk20%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Elite league - reduced thresholdBelow minimum tier (need PREMIUM+, got SKIP/0 rules)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.07
Moreirensevs
0.60
AroucaGoal Probability
Moreirense
0
34%
1
37%
2
20%
3
7%
4
2%
Arouca
0
55%
1
33%
2
10%
3
2%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-1 (17%)0-0 (12%)1-1 (12%)0-2 (11%)1-0 (9%)1-2 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 88% | 12% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% | - |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#8
Moreirense+4
Gap#12
Arouca
WR 50% 35 pts
WR 23% 26 pts
Moreirense
10.0%
| Mar 16 | Moreireā¦ v Portimoā¦ | 1-0 |
| Mar 16 | Moreireā¦ v FC Porto | 0-0 |
| Mar 15 | Moreireā¦ v Penafieā¦ | 1-0 |
| Mar 15 | Moreireā¦ v FC Porto | 3-0 |
| Mar 09 | Moreireā¦ v Benfica | 3-0 |
| Mar 07 | Moreireā¦ v Moreireā¦ | 0-3 |
| Mar 07 | Moreireā¦ v Nacional | 1-1 |
| Mar 02 | Moreireā¦ v Felgueiā¦ | 0-0 |
| Mar 01 | Moreireā¦ v Casa Piā¦ | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Moreireā¦ v Pacos Fā¦ | 0-0 |
Arouca
4.0%
| Mar 14 | Arouca v Benfica | 1-2 |
| Mar 06 | Arouca v Famalicā¦ | 1-0 |
| Feb 27 | Arouca v FC Porto | 3-1 |
| Feb 21 | Arouca v Nacional | 3-0 |
| Feb 14 | Arouca v Casa Piā¦ | 3-2 |
| Feb 07 | Arouca v Guimaraā¦ | 3-2 |
| Jan 31 | Arouca v Rio Aveā¦ | 0-3 |
| Jan 24 | Arouca v Sportinā¦ | 1-2 |
| Jan 17 | Arouca v AVS | 0-1 |
| Jan 03 | Arouca v Tondela | 3-1 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Nov 02, 2025 | Arouca | 0-2 | Moreirense |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Arouca | 1-0 | Moreirense |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Moreirense | 3-1 | Arouca |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Moreirense | 1-0 | Arouca |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
66%
Standings
64%
Market
44%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Arouca struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.