Primeira Liga · Mar 21, 2026 18:00
Benfica
PWR 35
Guimaraes
PWR 35
Benfica
PWR 35
3 - 0
FT
Guimaraes
PWR 35
49%
24%
27%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
1X (Home/Draw)
Double Chance · Odds imply 73% home + 17% draw = 90% combined
95%
accuracy
1.17x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Benfica Win
Score
4-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (8%)3-1 (8%)2-0 (6%)2-1 (6%)3-2 (4%)1-0 (3%)
CORRECT 3-0
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
90%
Home/Draw
1.17x
DC X2
Away/Draw
3.85x
Over 2.5
67%
67%
Under 2.5
33%
BTTS
Yes 60%
Over 3.5
54%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Benfica
LWDWD
STABLE
Guimaraes
LLWLW
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk24%
Accuracy38%
POINTS_GAP
Full data available (Tier 1)Home team draws 38% at home = very high riskH2H: 1/4 draws (25%) = HIGH riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (24.4%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
3.76
Benficavs
0.94
GuimaraesGoal Probability
Benfica
0
2%
1
9%
2
17%
3
21%
4
19%
Guimaraes
0
39%
1
37%
2
17%
3
5%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (9%)3-0 (9%)2-1 (8%)3-1 (8%)4-0 (7%)1-0 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 54% | 47% | - |
| 4.5 | 34% | 66% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 19% | 81% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 10% | 91% | UNDER |
League Position
#3
Benfica+6
Gap#9
Guimaraes
WR 62% 62 pts
WR 25% 32 pts
Benfica
12.0%
| Mar 14 | Benfica v Pacos F… | 1-0 |
| Mar 14 | Benfica v Arouca | 1-2 |
| Mar 14 | Benfica v Valadar… | 2-2 |
| Mar 09 | Benfica v Moreire… | 3-0 |
| Mar 08 | Benfica v FC Porto | 2-2 |
| Mar 02 | Benfica v GIL Vic… | 1-2 |
| Mar 01 | Benfica v Penafie… | 1-1 |
| Feb 25 | Benfica v Real Ma… | 2-1 |
| Feb 22 | Benfica v Damaien… | 0-4 |
| Feb 21 | Benfica v Moreire… | 1-0 |
Guimaraes
8.0%
| Mar 15 | Guimara… v Trofense | 1-2 |
| Mar 14 | Guimara… v Famalic… | 1-2 |
| Mar 08 | Guimara… v Mafra | 1-2 |
| Mar 08 | Guimara… v Santa C… | 2-0 |
| Feb 28 | Guimara… v Varzim | 3-0 |
| Feb 28 | Guimara… v Alverca | 1-1 |
| Feb 21 | Guimara… v União S… | 0-1 |
| Feb 21 | Guimara… v SC Braga | 3-2 |
| Feb 15 | Guimara… v CF Os B… | 2-2 |
| Feb 14 | Guimara… v Estrela… | 2-1 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Nov 01, 2025 | Guimaraes | 0-3 | Benfica |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Guimaraes | 0-3 | Benfica |
| Dec 07, 2024 | Benfica | 1-0 | Guimaraes |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Guimaraes | 2-2 | Benfica |
Decision Breakdown
ODDS60+M70 (77.4%)M85+S60 (75.3%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
72%
Market
94%
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Guimaraes struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.