Liga Portugal 2 · Mar 16, 2026 20:15
Moreirense
PWR 45
Portimonense
PWR 35
Moreirense
PWR 45
1 - 0
FT
Portimonense
PWR 35
51%
24%
25%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
ELITE: Moreirense to win (95% confidence)
Score
1-0
Confidence
95%
TierELITE
LIKELY SCORES
0-1 (21%)0-2 (15%)0-0 (15%)1-1 (10%)0-3 (7%)1-2 (7%)
WRONG 1-0
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.35x
DC X2
Away/Draw
2.14x
Over 2.5
30%
Under 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
No
No 29%
Over 3.5
10%
Team Comparison
43Attack0
54Defense100
Goals/G
1.20.0
Conc/G
1.30.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Moreirense
WLLLD
STABLE
Portimonense
LLLLD
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk21%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probability
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.48
Moreirensevs
1.45
PortimonenseGoal Probability
Moreirense
0
62%
1
30%
2
7%
3
1%
4
0%
Portimonense
0
24%
1
34%
2
25%
3
12%
4
4%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (18%)0-1 (16%)1-0 (14%)1-1 (13%)0-2 (8%)1-2 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 82% | 18% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 52% | 48% | - |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Moreirense+13
Gap#14
Portimonense
WR 37% 384 pts
WR 20% 42 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 281 | 104 | 72 | 105 | 345 | 367 | 384 |
| Portimonense | 51 | 10 | 12 | 29 | 49 | 82 | 42 |
Moreirense
6.0%
| Mar 15 | Moreire… v Penafie… | 1-0 |
| Mar 15 | Moreire… v FC Porto | 3-0 |
| Mar 09 | Moreire… v Benfica | 3-0 |
| Mar 07 | Moreire… v Moreire… | 0-3 |
| Mar 07 | Moreire… v Nacional | 1-1 |
| Mar 02 | Moreire… v Felguei… | 0-0 |
| Mar 01 | Moreire… v Casa Pi… | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Moreire… v Pacos F… | 0-0 |
| Feb 28 | Moreire… v FC Porto | 0-3 |
| Feb 22 | Moreire… v Lusitân… | 1-0 |
Portimonense
2.0%
| Mar 07 | Portimo… v Pacos F… | 2-3 |
| Feb 28 | Portimo… v União d… | 1-0 |
| Feb 22 | Portimo… v Académi… | 0-1 |
| Feb 15 | Portimo… v Sportin… | 4-3 |
| Feb 09 | Portimo… v Benfica | 1-1 |
| Jan 31 | Portimo… v Vizela | 1-1 |
| Jan 25 | Portimo… v Moreire… | 0-1 |
| Jan 17 | Portimo… v Penafie… | 0-2 |
| Jan 11 | Portimo… v Felguei… | 0-0 |
| Jan 03 | Portimo… v Farense | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Jan 25, 2026 | Portimonense | 0-1 | Moreirense |
| Nov 08, 2025 | Portimonense | 1-1 | Moreirense |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Portimonense | 0-1 | Moreirense |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Moreirense | 4-1 | Portimonense |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Portimonense | 1-2 | Moreirense |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Portimonense | 1-2 | Moreirense |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Moreirense | 1-1 | Portimonense |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Moreirense | 3-2 | Portimonense |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Portimonense | 0-2 | Moreirense |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Portimonense | 0-2 | Moreirense |
Decision Breakdown
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player
40%
Momentum
36%
Standings
50%
Market
56%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Moreirense struggling (3L in last 5)
Portimonense struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.