Liga MX · Feb 12, 2023 18:00
Toluca
PWR 35
Cruz Azul
PWR 35
Toluca
PWR 35
3 - 1
FT
Cruz Azul
PWR 35
41% H
26% D
33% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Prediction
1-1
Score
43%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
2-1 (8%)
3-1 (7%)
2-2 (6%)
1-1 (6%)
3-2 (6%)
1-2 (5%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 3-1
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 3 rules · 72%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk21%
Accuracy42%
HOME_WIN_RATEHOME_SCORINGAWAY_LEAKING
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line (65% avg across 10 backtests)
AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ SAME_TIER: Close positions, 28.4% draw rateClose positions = higher draw riskStrong home team = lower draw riskBelow minimum tier (need 4+ rules, got 3)
Power & Form
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Toluca Form
LDWWD
STABLE
Cruz Azul Form
LWDWW
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.574%
BTTS75%
Under 2.526%
Toluca Goals
0
7%
1
19%
2
25%
3
22%
4
14%
Cruz Azul Goals
0
19%
1
32%
2
26%
3
14%
4
6%
Expected Goals (xG)
2.64
Tolucavs
1.64
Cruz AzulDecision Breakdown
HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum80%
Standings44%
Market50%
High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#5
Toluca-3
Gap#2
Cruz Azul
WR 100% 8 pts
WR 50% 9 pts
Toluca
12.0%
| Feb 06 | Toluca v Monterr… | 2-1 |
| Dec 23 | Toluca v Cruz Az… | 1-1 |
| Oct 17 | Toluca v Santos … | 1-2 |
| Oct 14 | Toluca v Santos … | 4-3 |
| Aug 18 | Toluca v Monterr… | 1-1 |
| Aug 14 | Toluca v Cruz Az… | 2-3 |
| Aug 03 | Toluca v Puebla | 1-1 |
| Jul 23 | Toluca v Santos … | 2-1 |
| Apr 03 | Toluca v Puebla | 2-1 |
| Feb 21 | Toluca v Cruz Az… | 1-4 |
Cruz Azul
14.0%
| Feb 05 | Cruz Az… v Tigres … | 0-1 |
| Dec 31 | Cruz Az… v Guadala… | 0-2 |
| Dec 23 | Cruz Az… v Toluca | 1-1 |
| Oct 09 | Cruz Az… v León FC | 1-0 |
| Oct 02 | Cruz Az… v Guadala… | 2-1 |
| Sep 16 | Cruz Az… v León FC | 2-1 |
| Sep 03 | Cruz Az… v FC Juar… | 2-2 |
| Aug 14 | Cruz Az… v Toluca | 2-3 |
| Jul 24 | Cruz Az… v Puebla | 2-2 |
| Jul 16 | Cruz Az… v Atlas | 3-2 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Dec 23, 2022 | Toluca | 1-1 | Cruz Azul |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Cruz Azul | 2-3 | Toluca |
| Feb 21, 2022 | Toluca | 1-4 | Cruz Azul |
| Aug 15, 2021 | Cruz Azul | 4-0 | Toluca |
Key Factors
Cruz Azul in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.