AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga Profesional Argentina Mar 06, 2026

Vélez Sarsfield

Home
VS
22:45

Newell’s Old Boys

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
Vélez Sarsfield Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Newell’s Old Boys Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) TOP3vsBot (75.8%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) TOP3_VS_REL (80.8%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 81%
Standings 95%
Market 50%
Combined: 56% Draw Risk: 40%
xG: 2.00 - 0.90
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.0 vs 0.9 Position gap: 22 places
High draw risk (40%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Vélez Sarsfield Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
14%
1 goals:
27%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
9%
Newell’s Old Boys Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
41%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
17%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (11%) 2-0 (11%) 1-1 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 3-0 (7%) 3-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 51%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Under 2.5 Goals 46%
Vélez Sarsfield Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Vélez Sar… vs Independi… 1-1
Jan 27 Vélez Sar… vs Talleres … 2-1
Jan 23 Vélez Sar… vs Instituto… 0-1
Nov 22 Vélez Sar… vs Argentino… 0-2
Nov 16 Vélez Sar… vs River Pla… 0-0
Nov 10 Vélez Sar… vs Gimnasia … 2-0
Nov 01 Vélez Sar… vs Talleres … 0-1
Oct 19 Vélez Sar… vs Sarmiento… 0-2
Oct 12 Vélez Sar… vs Rosario C… 1-2
Oct 06 Vélez Sar… vs Deportivo… 2-2
Newell’s Old Boys Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Newell’s … vs Boca Juni… 2-0
Jan 28 Newell’s … vs Independi… 1-1
Jan 24 Newell’s … vs Talleres … 2-1
Nov 16 Newell’s … vs Racing Cl… 0-1
Nov 08 Newell’s … vs Huracan 0-2
Nov 01 Newell’s … vs Unión San… 0-1
Oct 18 Newell’s … vs Argentino… 3-1
Oct 10 Newell’s … vs Tigre 1-1
Oct 05 Newell’s … vs Boca Juni… 5-0
Sep 30 Newell’s … vs Estudiant… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Newell’s Old Boys struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

MASTER: Vélez Sarsfield to win (83% confidence)

MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0 83% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 22
Vélez Sarsfield Power 0
Newell’s Old Boys Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Vélez Sarsfield Position

+22

Position Gap

25

Newell’s Old Boys Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.