AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Dec 09, 2023

FC Porto

Home
VS
20:30

Casa Pia AC

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
FC Porto Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Casa Pia AC Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) TOP3vsBot (75.8%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 78%
Standings 91%
Market 50%
Combined: 54% Draw Risk: 52%
xG: 1.04 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.0 vs 0.2 Position gap: 14 places
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
FC Porto Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
35%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Casa Pia AC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (30%) 0-0 (29%) 2-0 (16%) 1-1 (6%) 0-1 (6%) 3-0 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 12%
Over 2.5 Goals 13%
Under 2.5 Goals 87%
FC Porto Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 06 FC Porto vs Estoril 3-1
Dec 02 FC Porto vs Famalicao 0-3
Dec 02 FC Porto vs Famalicao 0-3
Nov 29 FC Porto vs CSKA Mosc… 1-1
Nov 24 FC Porto vs KR Reykja… 1-0
Nov 17 FC Porto vs Krylya So… 1-2
Nov 11 FC Porto vs Penafiel … 3-2
Nov 11 FC Porto vs Guimaraes 1-2
Nov 04 FC Porto vs Moreirense 2-0
Nov 03 FC Porto vs Estoril 0-1
Casa Pia AC Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 02 Casa Pia … vs Portimone… 1-0
Nov 25 Casa Pia … vs Nacional 0-0
Oct 02 Casa Pia … vs GIL Vicen… 2-0
Sep 23 Casa Pia … vs Guimaraes 0-0
Sep 02 Casa Pia … vs Rio Ave FC 1-1
Aug 18 Casa Pia … vs Sporting … 1-2
May 27 Casa Pia … vs GIL Vicen… 1-0
May 14 Casa Pia … vs FC Porto 2-1
Apr 16 Casa Pia … vs Rio Ave FC 1-1
Apr 09 Casa Pia … vs Sporting … 3-4
Key Analysis Factors
  • FC Porto in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 14, 2023 FC Porto 2 - 1 Casa Pia AC Primeira Liga
Jan 07, 2023 Casa Pia AC 0 - 0 FC Porto Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

PRO: FC Porto to win (65% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0 65% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_12+ (76.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
FC Porto Power 0
Casa Pia AC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

FC Porto Position

+14

Position Gap

15

Casa Pia AC Position
Home Win Rate: 89%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.