AI Match Insights

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Catarinense - 1 Feb 01, 2025

Chapecoense

Home
VS
19:00

Criciúma

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Chapecoense Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Criciúma Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 86%
Standings 62%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 33%
xG: 1.86 - 0.41
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 0.4
High draw risk (33%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Chapecoense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
16%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Criciúma Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
66%
1 goals:
27%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (19%) 2-0 (18%) 3-0 (11%) 0-0 (10%) 1-1 (8%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 28%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Under 2.5 Goals 62%
Chapecoense Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 29 Chapecoen… vs Avaí 0-0
Jan 26 Chapecoen… vs Concórdia 2-1
Jan 19 Chapecoen… vs Marcílio … 1-0
Nov 24 Chapecoen… vs Mirassol 1-0
Nov 17 Chapecoen… vs Corinthia… 2-1
Nov 10 Chapecoen… vs Sport Rec… 1-1
Nov 02 Chapecoen… vs Novorizon… 0-2
Oct 29 Chapecoen… vs Brusque 0-1
Sep 22 Chapecoen… vs Avaí 1-0
Aug 22 Chapecoen… vs América M… 0-0
Criciúma Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 30 Criciúma vs Joinville 3-0
Jan 19 Criciúma vs Concórdia 2-0
Dec 08 Criciúma vs RB Bragan… 5-1
Dec 04 Criciúma vs Flamengo 0-3
Nov 30 Criciúma vs Corinthia… 2-4
Nov 26 Criciúma vs Fluminense 0-0
Nov 20 Criciúma vs Vitoria 0-1
Oct 03 Criciúma vs Athletico… 2-0
Jun 19 Criciúma vs Athletico… 1-2
May 23 Criciúma vs Bahia 0-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Criciúma struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 02, 2024 Criciúma 2 - 0 Chapecoense Catarinense - 1
Oct 14, 2023 Criciúma 1 - 2 Chapecoense Serie B
Jun 24, 2023 Chapecoense 1 - 1 Criciúma Serie B
Jan 22, 2023 Chapecoense 1 - 1 Criciúma Catarinense - 1
Sep 25, 2022 Criciúma 2 - 0 Chapecoense Serie B
Jun 11, 2022 Chapecoense 2 - 3 Criciúma Serie B
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Chapecoense to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Chapecoense Power 0
Criciúma Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Chapecoense Position

+1

Position Gap

3

Criciúma Position
Home Win Rate: 67%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.