AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Paulista - A4 Feb 11, 2026

São Caetano

Home
VS
18:00

Nacional SP

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
São Caetano Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Nacional SP Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 84%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.49 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.5 vs 0.2
High draw risk (54%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
São Caetano Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
23%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
12%
4 goals:
5%
Nacional SP Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (27%) 2-0 (20%) 0-0 (18%) 3-0 (10%) 1-1 (5%) 2-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 14%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Under 2.5 Goals 76%
São Caetano Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 São Caeta… vs Inter de … 2-0
Aug 30 São Caeta… vs Grêmio Pr… 2-0
Aug 23 São Caeta… vs Grêmio Pr… 0-0
Aug 16 São Caeta… vs Taubaté 3-0
Aug 09 São Caeta… vs Santo And… 2-0
Aug 03 São Caeta… vs Portugues… 0-0
Jul 27 São Caeta… vs São José … 1-2
Jul 19 São Caeta… vs Oeste 2-0
Jul 12 São Caeta… vs Taubaté 0-2
Jul 05 São Caeta… vs Santo And… 0-2
Nacional SP Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Nacional … vs Jabaquara 1-0
Apr 19 Nacional … vs Paulista … 3-0
Apr 12 Nacional … vs Paulista … 1-1
Apr 05 Nacional … vs São Caeta… 1-1
Mar 29 Nacional … vs São Caeta… 3-0
Mar 22 Nacional … vs Grêmio Sã… 0-0
Mar 06 Nacional … vs Grêmio Sã… 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • São Caetano struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 05, 2025 São Caetano 1 - 1 Nacional SP Paulista - A4
Mar 29, 2025 Nacional SP 3 - 0 São Caetano Paulista - A4
Final Verdict

STANDARD: São Caetano to win (60% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 60% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 84
São Caetano Power 0
Nacional SP Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

15

São Caetano Position

-2

Position Gap

13

Nacional SP Position
Home Win Rate: 0%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.