AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Alagoano Jan 11, 2025

Penedense

Home
VS
19:00

Murici FC

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Penedense Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Murici FC Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 81%
Standings 48%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 41%
xG: 1.86 - 0.80
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 0.8
High draw risk (41%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Penedense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
16%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Murici FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
45%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
14%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (13%) 2-0 (12%) 1-1 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 3-0 (8%) 0-0 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 46%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Under 2.5 Goals 52%
Penedense Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 04 Penedense vs CSA 0-1
Mar 31 Penedense vs CSA 1-1
Mar 24 Penedense vs Coruripe 1-0
Mar 21 Penedense vs Coruripe 0-0
Mar 06 Penedense vs Murici FC 0-0
Mar 02 Penedense vs Murici FC 0-0
Feb 24 Penedense vs CSA 1-1
Feb 21 Penedense vs ASA 0-0
Feb 18 Penedense vs ASA 1-2
Feb 14 Penedense vs CSA 2-1
Murici FC Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 26 Murici FC vs CSA 0-3
Mar 23 Murici FC vs CSA 3-3
Mar 19 Murici FC vs CRB II 3-0
Mar 16 Murici FC vs CRB 3-0
Mar 09 Murici FC vs CRB 1-2
Mar 06 Murici FC vs Penedense 0-0
Mar 02 Murici FC vs Penedense 0-0
Feb 24 Murici FC vs ASA 2-2
Feb 21 Murici FC vs Coruripe 0-0
Feb 17 Murici FC vs CSA 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Murici FC struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 06, 2024 Penedense 0 - 0 Murici FC Copa Alagoas
Mar 02, 2024 Murici FC 0 - 0 Penedense Alagoano
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Penedense Power 0
Murici FC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Penedense Position

-1

Position Gap

7

Murici FC Position
Home Win Rate: 0%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.