AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Paraibano Feb 09, 2026

Serra Branca

Home
VS
22:30

Nacional de Patos

Away
AI Predictions 57.0% Confidence
Serra Branca Win
57.0%
Draw
22.6%
Nacional de Patos Win
20.4%
Home Win (57% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 70%
Standings 67%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 46%
xG: 1.13 - 0.46
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.1 vs 0.5
High draw risk (46%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Serra Branca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
32%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Nacional de Patos Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
63%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (23%) 0-0 (20%) 2-0 (13%) 1-1 (11%) 0-1 (9%) 2-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Under 2.5 Goals 79%
Serra Branca Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 Serra Bra… vs Confiança… 2-0
Feb 01 Serra Bra… vs Pombal EC 3-1
Jan 29 Serra Bra… vs Atlético … 1-0
Jan 24 Serra Bra… vs EC de Pat… 0-2
Jan 22 Serra Bra… vs Sousa 2-1
Jan 18 Serra Bra… vs Treze 0-2
Mar 16 Serra Bra… vs Sousa 1-1
Mar 09 Serra Bra… vs Sousa 1-1
Feb 13 Serra Bra… vs Nacional … 2-2
Feb 09 Serra Bra… vs EC de Pat… 0-2
Nacional de Patos Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 05 Nacional … vs Botafogo … 0-0
Feb 01 Nacional … vs Atlético … 1-0
Jan 29 Nacional … vs EC de Pat… 0-0
Jan 25 Nacional … vs Confiança… 4-4
Jan 22 Nacional … vs Campinense 1-2
Jan 18 Nacional … vs Pombal EC 3-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Serra Branca in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
Final Verdict

MASTER: Serra Branca to win (78% confidence)

MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0 78% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 98
Serra Branca Power 0
Nacional de Patos Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Serra Branca Position

+3

Position Gap

4

Nacional de Patos Position
Home Win Rate: 75%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.