AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Paraibano Feb 12, 2026

Nacional de Patos

Home
VS
23:00

Sousa

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Nacional de Patos Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Sousa Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 64%
Market 50%
Combined: 63% Draw Risk: 24%
xG: 4.50 - 0.70
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 0.7
Score Prediction Analysis
Nacional de Patos Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Sousa Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
50%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
12%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (8%) 3-1 (6%) 2-0 (6%) 2-1 (4%) 1-0 (2%) 3-2 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Under 2.5 Goals 41%
Nacional de Patos Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 05 Nacional … vs Botafogo … 0-0
Feb 01 Nacional … vs Atlético … 1-0
Jan 29 Nacional … vs EC de Pat… 0-0
Jan 25 Nacional … vs Confiança… 4-4
Jan 22 Nacional … vs Campinense 1-2
Jan 18 Nacional … vs Pombal EC 3-0
Sousa Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Sousa vs EC de Pat… 0-1
Jan 28 Sousa vs Treze 2-1
Jan 24 Sousa vs Botafogo … 1-1
Jan 22 Sousa vs Serra Bra… 2-1
Jan 17 Sousa vs Confiança… 3-0
Jan 04 Sousa vs Potiguar … 1-0
Mar 30 Sousa vs Botafogo 1-1
Mar 27 Sousa vs Ferroviár… 2-0
Mar 23 Sousa vs Botafogo 1-0
Mar 16 Sousa vs Serra Bra… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Nacional de Patos Power 0
Sousa Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

Nacional de Patos Position

+3

Position Gap

7

Sousa Position
Home Win Rate: 33%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.