AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Ligue 1 Feb 01, 2026

US Monastirienne

Home
VS
13:00

AS Marsa

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
US Monastirienne Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
AS Marsa Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 81%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 30%
xG: 1.69 - 0.60
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.7 vs 0.6 Position gap: 5 places
High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
US Monastirienne Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
19%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
15%
4 goals:
6%
AS Marsa Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
55%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
10%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (17%) 2-0 (14%) 1-1 (10%) 0-0 (10%) 2-1 (9%) 3-0 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 37%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Under 2.5 Goals 61%
US Monastirienne Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 28 US Monast… vs Olympique… 1-0
Jan 19 US Monast… vs ES Tunis 2-1
Jan 16 US Monast… vs Stade Tun… 0-0
Nov 23 US Monast… vs AS Soliman 1-2
Nov 08 US Monast… vs JS Kairou… 2-0
Nov 05 US Monast… vs ES Metlao… 2-2
Nov 01 US Monast… vs AS Gabes 1-1
Oct 29 US Monast… vs US Ben Gu… 0-0
Oct 25 US Monast… vs JS Kabylie 2-1
Oct 21 US Monast… vs Club Afri… 2-1
AS Marsa Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 28 AS Marsa vs AS Gabes 1-0
Jan 23 AS Marsa vs US Ben Gu… 1-0
Jan 17 AS Marsa vs Club Afri… 0-1
Nov 22 AS Marsa vs Jeunesse … 2-1
Nov 08 AS Marsa vs CS Sfaxien 2-0
Nov 05 AS Marsa vs Club Athl… 2-0
Nov 02 AS Marsa vs ES Zarzis 0-2
Oct 29 AS Marsa vs Étoile du… 0-2
Oct 19 AS Marsa vs ES Metlao… 0-1
Oct 04 AS Marsa vs Olympique… 0-6
Key Analysis Factors
  • US Monastirienne in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • AS Marsa struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 27, 2025 AS Marsa 0 - 0 US Monastirienne Ligue 1
Nov 11, 2023 AS Marsa 0 - 3 US Monastirienne Ligue 1
Sep 02, 2023 US Monastirienne 3 - 1 AS Marsa Ligue 1
Final Verdict

STANDARD: US Monastirienne to win (43% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 43% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
US Monastirienne Power 0
AS Marsa Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

US Monastirienne Position

+5

Position Gap

10

AS Marsa Position
Home Win Rate: 63%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.