AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Azerbaijan Premier League Feb 10, 2026

Şamaxı

Home
VS
10:30

Qarabağ FK

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Şamaxı Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Qarabağ FK Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 68%
Standings 38%
Market 50%
Combined: 43% Draw Risk: 38%
xG: 1.58 - 0.97
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 1.0
High draw risk (38%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Şamaxı Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
21%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
14%
4 goals:
5%
Qarabağ FK Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
38%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
18%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (12%) 1-1 (12%) 2-0 (10%) 2-1 (9%) 0-0 (8%) 0-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 49%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Under 2.5 Goals 54%
Şamaxı Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 05 Şamaxı vs Qarabağ FK 2-1
Jan 31 Şamaxı vs Kəpəz 0-2
Jan 24 Şamaxı vs Qabala 0-4
Dec 21 Şamaxı vs Araz 2-0
Dec 13 Şamaxı vs Zira 2-1
Dec 07 Şamaxı vs Karvan 0-3
Dec 03 Şamaxı vs Baku Spor… 1-0
Nov 30 Şamaxı vs Sumqayıt 1-2
Nov 23 Şamaxı vs Sabah FA 0-0
Nov 07 Şamaxı vs Mil-Muğan 1-0
Qarabağ FK Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 05 Qarabağ FK vs Şamaxı 2-1
Feb 01 Qarabağ FK vs Turan Tov… 1-0
Jan 28 Qarabağ FK vs Liverpool 2-0
Jan 24 Qarabağ FK vs Kəpəz 0-2
Jan 21 Qarabağ FK vs Eintracht… 3-2
Dec 21 Qarabağ FK vs Qabala 1-2
Dec 18 Qarabağ FK vs Sabah FA 2-1
Dec 14 Qarabağ FK vs Araz 5-1
Dec 10 Qarabağ FK vs Ajax 2-4
Dec 06 Qarabağ FK vs Zira 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Şamaxı in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Qarabağ FK struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 05, 2026 Şamaxı 2 - 1 Qarabağ FK Cup
Oct 26, 2025 Qarabağ FK 0 - 0 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
May 24, 2025 Şamaxı 0 - 1 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Jan 17, 2025 Qarabağ FK 3 - 2 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Dec 19, 2024 Şamaxı 0 - 1 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Oct 27, 2024 Qarabağ FK 3 - 0 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Apr 02, 2023 Şamaxı 0 - 1 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Jan 31, 2023 Qarabağ FK 3 - 1 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Oct 30, 2022 Şamaxı 0 - 4 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Aug 27, 2022 Qarabağ FK 4 - 0 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Şamaxı Power 0
Qarabağ FK Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Şamaxı Position

-6

Position Gap

2

Qarabağ FK Position
Home Win Rate: 38%
Away Win Rate: 71%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.