AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Premier League Feb 19, 2026

Al Ahly

Home
VS
19:30

El Gouna

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Al Ahly Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
El Gouna Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 0-2
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 35%
Standings 76%
Market 50%
Combined: 41% Draw Risk: 31%
xG: 0.53 - 2.01
Key Insights
Position gap: 8 places
High draw risk (31%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Al Ahly Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
59%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
8%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
El Gouna Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
13%
1 goals:
27%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2 (16%) 0-1 (16%) 0-3 (11%) 1-2 (8%) 1-1 (8%) 0-0 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 36%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Under 2.5 Goals 55%
Al Ahly Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 Al Ahly vs National … 1-1
Jan 31 Al Ahly vs Young Afr… 1-1
Jan 27 Al Ahly vs Wadi Degla 3-1
Jan 23 Al Ahly vs Young Afr… 2-0
Jan 15 Al Ahly vs El Geish 1-2
Jan 10 Al Ahly vs Pharco 1-4
Dec 30 Al Ahly vs El Mokawl… 0-3
Dec 23 Al Ahly vs Ghazl El … 2-1
Dec 19 Al Ahly vs Cerâmica … 0-1
Dec 12 Al Ahly vs Enppi 0-1
El Gouna Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 28 El Gouna vs Al Assiou… 1-1
Jan 20 El Gouna vs Al Assiou… 0-3
Jan 17 El Gouna vs Coca-Cola 0-2
Jan 06 El Gouna vs Petrojet 1-3
Jan 01 El Gouna vs Wadi Degla 0-1
Dec 25 El Gouna vs National … 1-1
Dec 20 El Gouna vs Al Assiou… 2-0
Dec 10 El Gouna vs Ismaily SC 1-3
Nov 23 El Gouna vs Al Ittihad 0-2
Nov 01 El Gouna vs Pharco 0-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Final Verdict

STANDARD: Al Ahly to win (45% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 45% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Al Ahly Power 0
El Gouna Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

Al Ahly Position

+8

Position Gap

12

El Gouna Position
Home Win Rate: 71%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.