AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga Nacional Feb 19, 2026

Antigua GFC

Home
VS
02:00

Aurora

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Antigua GFC Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Aurora Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 65%
Market 50%
Combined: 54% Draw Risk: 28%
xG: 4.50 - 0.38
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 0.4
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Antigua GFC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Aurora Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
68%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
5%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (12%) 2-0 (8%) 3-1 (4%) 1-0 (3%) 2-1 (3%) 1-1 (1%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 31%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Under 2.5 Goals 43%
Antigua GFC Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Antigua G… vs Marquense 1-1
Jan 29 Antigua G… vs Comunicac… 0-1
Jan 26 Antigua G… vs Xelajú 1-1
Jan 21 Antigua G… vs Cobán Imp… 5-1
Dec 28 Antigua G… vs Municipal 1-0
Dec 22 Antigua G… vs Municipal 2-0
Dec 18 Antigua G… vs Aurora 4-2
Dec 14 Antigua G… vs Aurora 0-1
Dec 12 Antigua G… vs Xelajú 2-0
Dec 09 Antigua G… vs Xelajú 1-0
Aurora Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Aurora vs Malacatec… 1-0
Jan 28 Aurora vs Guastatoya 2-2
Jan 25 Aurora vs Municipal 2-2
Jan 21 Aurora vs XelajĂş 4-0
Dec 18 Aurora vs Antigua G… 4-2
Dec 14 Aurora vs Antigua G… 0-1
Dec 10 Aurora vs Malacatec… 2-1
Dec 07 Aurora vs Malacatec… 1-0
Nov 30 Aurora vs Mixco 1-0
Nov 22 Aurora vs Mictlán 4-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Antigua GFC struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 18, 2025 Antigua GFC 4 - 2 Aurora Liga Nacional
Dec 14, 2025 Aurora 0 - 1 Antigua GFC Liga Nacional
Oct 26, 2025 Antigua GFC 1 - 2 Aurora Liga Nacional
Aug 16, 2025 Aurora 3 - 2 Antigua GFC Liga Nacional
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Antigua GFC to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Antigua GFC Power 0
Aurora Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Antigua GFC Position

+1

Position Gap

4

Aurora Position
Home Win Rate: 73%
Away Win Rate: 27%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.