AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primera División - Clausura Feb 18, 2021

Progreso

Home
VS
20:00

Club Nacional

Away
AI Predictions 51.3% Confidence
Progreso Win
18.3%
Draw
30.3%
Club Nacional Win
51.3%
Away Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 28%
xG: 1.92 - 0.98
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 1.0
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Progreso Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
15%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Club Nacional Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
38%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
18%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (11%) 1-1 (10%) 2-0 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 3-0 (6%) 3-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 53%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Under 2.5 Goals 46%
Progreso Form 3.3%
Date Match Result
Feb 11 Progreso vs Defensor … 3-3
Aug 26 Progreso vs Club Naci… 2-1
Aug 19 Progreso vs Defensor … 2-1
Club Nacional Form 20.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 26 Club Naci… vs Progreso 2-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 26, 2020 Club Nacional 2 - 1 Progreso Primera Divisi…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Progreso to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Progreso Power 0
Club Nacional Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.