AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Paulista - A2 Feb 18, 2026

Ituano

Home
VS
22:00

Água Santa

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Ituano Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Água Santa Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 71%
Standings 64%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 45%
xG: 1.38 - 0.61
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.6
High draw risk (45%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Ituano Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
25%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Água Santa Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
54%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
10%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (19%) 0-0 (14%) 2-0 (13%) 1-1 (12%) 0-1 (8%) 2-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 34%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Under 2.5 Goals 68%
Ituano Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Ituano vs Taubaté 0-1
Jan 28 Ituano vs Juventude 1-1
Jan 25 Ituano vs São Berna… 2-1
Jan 21 Ituano vs Fluminense 1-3
Jan 17 Ituano vs Ferroviár… 1-1
Jan 14 Ituano vs Votuporan… 1-0
Jan 10 Ituano vs Grêmio Pr… 1-1
Oct 11 Ituano vs Lago Verde 3-1
Oct 08 Ituano vs Lago Verde 0-3
Sep 20 Ituano vs São Luiz 1-1
Água Santa Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Água Santa vs Santo And… 2-1
Jan 28 Água Santa vs Inter De … 0-2
Jan 24 Água Santa vs Sertãozin… 3-1
Jan 21 Água Santa vs XV de Pir… 0-0
Jan 17 Água Santa vs São Berna… 3-0
Jan 14 Água Santa vs Fluminense 2-1
Jan 10 Água Santa vs Votuporan… 1-0
Feb 23 Água Santa vs Velo Clube 1-0
Feb 19 Água Santa vs Inter De … 2-2
Feb 16 Água Santa vs Santos 3-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Ituano in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Água Santa in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Ituano to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Ituano Power 0
Água Santa Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Ituano Position

+1

Position Gap

3

Água Santa Position
Home Win Rate: 67%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.