AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Premier League Feb 18, 2026

Floriana

Home
VS
17:30

Marsaxlokk

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Floriana Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Marsaxlokk Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 80%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.39 - 0.42
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.4 Position gap: 5 places
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Floriana Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
25%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Marsaxlokk Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
66%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (23%) 0-0 (16%) 2-0 (16%) 1-1 (10%) 3-0 (7%) 0-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 26%
Over 2.5 Goals 27%
Under 2.5 Goals 73%
Floriana Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 Floriana vs Valletta … 0-0
Feb 01 Floriana vs Zabbar St… 0-3
Jan 28 Floriana vs Zabbar St… 0-0
Jan 25 Floriana vs Mosta 2-1
Jan 17 Floriana vs Naxxar Li… 3-1
Jan 10 Floriana vs Valletta … 0-0
Jan 07 Floriana vs Hamrun Sp… 0-2
Jan 03 Floriana vs Marsaxlokk 1-0
Dec 20 Floriana vs Sliema Wa… 2-1
Dec 13 Floriana vs Birkirkar… 2-0
Marsaxlokk Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 Marsaxlokk vs Sliema Wa… 1-1
Jan 31 Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkar… 0-1
Jan 25 Marsaxlokk vs Tarxien R… 2-1
Jan 18 Marsaxlokk vs Gżira Uni… 3-0
Jan 11 Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkar… 2-1
Jan 06 Marsaxlokk vs Sliema Wa… 0-0
Jan 03 Marsaxlokk vs Floriana 1-0
Dec 20 Marsaxlokk vs Valletta … 1-0
Dec 14 Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Sp… 1-3
Nov 23 Marsaxlokk vs Floriana 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Marsaxlokk struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 03, 2026 Floriana 1 - 0 Marsaxlokk FA Trophy
Nov 23, 2025 Floriana 2 - 1 Marsaxlokk Premier League
Sep 20, 2025 Marsaxlokk 1 - 2 Floriana Premier League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Floriana to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Floriana Power 0
Marsaxlokk Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Floriana Position

+5

Position Gap

6

Marsaxlokk Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.