AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Serie B Feb 11, 2026

Bari

Home
VS
19:00

Spezia

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Bari Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Spezia Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 80%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 35%
xG: 1.92 - 0.92
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 0.9
High draw risk (35%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Bari Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
15%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Spezia Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
40%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
17%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (11%) 2-0 (11%) 1-1 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 3-0 (7%) 3-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 51%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Under 2.5 Goals 47%
Bari Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 30 Bari vs Palermo 0-3
Jan 24 Bari vs Cesena 1-2
Jan 17 Bari vs Juve Stab… 0-1
Jan 10 Bari vs Carrarese 1-0
Dec 27 Bari vs Avellino 1-1
Dec 19 Bari vs Catanzaro 1-2
Dec 13 Bari vs Sudtirol 0-0
Dec 09 Bari vs Sudan 3-1
Dec 08 Bari vs Pescara 1-1
Dec 06 Bari vs Algeria 1-5
Spezia Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Spezia vs Sampdoria 1-0
Jan 24 Spezia vs Avellino 1-0
Jan 18 Spezia vs Palermo 1-0
Jan 10 Spezia vs Sudtirol 2-1
Dec 27 Spezia vs Pescara 2-1
Dec 20 Spezia vs Frosinone 2-1
Dec 13 Spezia vs Modena 0-2
Dec 08 Spezia vs Virtus En… 0-1
Nov 30 Spezia vs Sampdoria 1-0
Nov 23 Spezia vs Mantova 4-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Bari struggling (3L in last 5) Home
  • Spezia struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Nov 07, 2025 Spezia 1 - 1 Bari Serie B
Dec 29, 2024 Bari 2 - 0 Spezia Pro League
Dec 29, 2024 Bari 2 - 0 Spezia Serie B
Oct 25, 2024 Spezia 0 - 0 Bari Serie B
Oct 25, 2024 Spezia 0 - 0 Bari Pro League
Mar 03, 2024 Bari 1 - 1 Spezia Serie B
Mar 03, 2024 Bari 1 - 1 Spezia Pro League
Dec 15, 2023 Spezia 1 - 0 Bari Serie B
Dec 15, 2023 Spezia 1 - 0 Bari Pro League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Bari to win (50% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 50% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Bari Power 27
Spezia Power 30
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

19

Bari Position

-2

Position Gap

17

Spezia Position
Home Win Rate: 27%
Away Win Rate: 18%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.