AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Championship Feb 07, 2026

Derby

Home
VS
12:31

Ipswich

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Derby Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Ipswich Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 68%
Standings 44%
Market 50%
Combined: 43% Draw Risk: 37%
xG: 1.57 - 1.01
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 1.0
High draw risk (37%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Derby Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
21%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
13%
4 goals:
5%
Ipswich Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
36%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 (12%) 1-0 (12%) 2-1 (9%) 2-0 (9%) 0-1 (8%) 0-0 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Under 2.5 Goals 53%
Derby Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 30 Derby vs Bristol C… 0-5
Jan 23 Derby vs West Brom 1-1
Jan 20 Derby vs Charlton 1-2
Jan 17 Derby vs Preston 0-1
Jan 11 Derby vs Leeds 1-3
Jan 04 Derby vs Wrexham 1-2
Jan 01 Derby vs Middlesbr… 1-0
Dec 29 Derby vs Leicester 2-1
Dec 26 Derby vs Birmingham 1-1
Dec 20 Derby vs Portsmout… 1-1
Ipswich Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Ipswich vs Preston 1-1
Jan 24 Ipswich vs Sheffield… 3-1
Jan 20 Ipswich vs Bristol C… 2-0
Jan 17 Ipswich vs Blackburn 3-0
Jan 10 Ipswich vs Blackpool 2-1
Jan 01 Ipswich vs Oxford Un… 2-1
Dec 29 Ipswich vs Coventry 0-2
Dec 26 Ipswich vs Millwall 0-0
Dec 20 Ipswich vs Sheffield… 3-1
Dec 13 Ipswich vs Leicester 3-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Derby in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Ipswich in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 30, 2025 Ipswich 2 - 2 Derby Championship
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (33% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 33% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Derby Power 37
Ipswich Power 43
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

7

Derby Position

-3

Position Gap

4

Ipswich Position
Home Win Rate: 27%
Away Win Rate: 31%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.