AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
NPFL Feb 11, 2026

Nasarawa United

Home
VS
15:00

Bayelsa United

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Nasarawa United Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Bayelsa United Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 74%
Market 50%
Combined: 55% Draw Risk: 38%
xG: 2.78 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.8 vs 0.2 Position gap: 7 places
High draw risk (38%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Nasarawa United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
6%
1 goals:
17%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
15%
Bayelsa United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (20%) 3-0 (18%) 1-0 (14%) 0-0 (5%) 2-1 (4%) 3-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 17%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Under 2.5 Goals 49%
Nasarawa United Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Nasarawa … vs Wikki Tou… 0-0
Jan 28 Nasarawa … vs Enyimba 1-1
Jan 25 Nasarawa … vs Abia Warr… 1-2
Jan 18 Nasarawa … vs Niger Tor… 2-1
Jan 14 Nasarawa … vs Kano Pill… 0-1
Dec 28 Nasarawa … vs Kano Pill… 3-0
Dec 23 Nasarawa … vs Barau FC 0-0
Dec 14 Nasarawa … vs Plateau U… 0-0
Dec 08 Nasarawa … vs Shooting … 1-0
Nov 30 Nasarawa … vs Warri Wol… 1-0
Bayelsa United Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Bayelsa U… vs Enyimba 0-0
Jan 29 Bayelsa U… vs Niger Tor… 0-0
Jan 25 Bayelsa U… vs Barau FC 1-1
Jan 18 Bayelsa U… vs Shooting … 2-0
Jan 14 Bayelsa U… vs Abia Warr… 1-0
Dec 28 Bayelsa U… vs Abia Warr… 0-1
Dec 21 Bayelsa U… vs Kwara Uni… 2-0
Dec 14 Bayelsa U… vs Remo Stars 2-1
Dec 07 Bayelsa U… vs Enugu Ran… 4-1
Nov 30 Bayelsa U… vs Katsina U… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 21, 2025 Bayelsa United 1 - 2 Nasarawa United NPFL
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Nasarawa United to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Nasarawa United Power 0
Bayelsa United Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Nasarawa United Position

+7

Position Gap

10

Bayelsa United Position
Home Win Rate: 67%
Away Win Rate: 18%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.