AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga Feb 08, 2026

Nacional

Home
VS
15:30

Casa Pia AC

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Nacional Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Casa Pia AC Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 55%
Market 50%
Combined: 61% Draw Risk: 22%
xG: 4.50 - 0.66
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 0.7
Score Prediction Analysis
Nacional Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Casa Pia AC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
52%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (9%) 2-0 (6%) 3-1 (6%) 2-1 (4%) 1-0 (3%) 3-2 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Under 2.5 Goals 41%
Nacional Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Nacional vs Sporting … 2-1
Jan 25 Nacional vs Rio Ave FC 4-0
Jan 17 Nacional vs GIL Vicen… 2-1
Jan 11 Nacional vs Santa Cla… 3-3
Jan 02 Nacional vs Guimaraes 2-1
Dec 21 Nacional vs AVS 2-2
Dec 15 Nacional vs Tondela 3-1
Dec 07 Nacional vs Alverca 1-0
Nov 29 Nacional vs Benfica 1-2
Nov 23 Nacional vs SC Braga 4-2
Casa Pia AC Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 02 Casa Pia … vs FC Porto 2-1
Jan 23 Casa Pia … vs AVS 3-3
Jan 16 Casa Pia … vs Sporting … 3-0
Jan 04 Casa Pia … vs Rio Ave FC 3-1
Dec 28 Casa Pia … vs Guimaraes 0-0
Dec 21 Casa Pia … vs Tondela 1-2
Dec 17 Casa Pia … vs Torreense 1-2
Dec 13 Casa Pia … vs GIL Vicen… 1-1
Dec 06 Casa Pia … vs Santa Cla… 1-0
Nov 29 Casa Pia … vs Alverca 0-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Nacional struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 30, 2025 Casa Pia AC 0 - 2 Nacional Primeira Liga
Mar 16, 2025 Nacional 3 - 1 Casa Pia AC Primeira Liga
Oct 25, 2024 Casa Pia AC 1 - 0 Nacional Pro League
Nov 25, 2023 Nacional 0 - 0 Casa Pia AC Taça de Portug…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Nacional Power 0
Casa Pia AC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

12

Nacional Position

+3

Position Gap

15

Casa Pia AC Position
Home Win Rate: 33%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.