AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Sergipano Feb 08, 2025

Lagarto

Home
VS
19:00

AO Itabaiana

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Lagarto Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
AO Itabaiana Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 68%
Standings 48%
Market 50%
Combined: 44% Draw Risk: 47%
xG: 1.35 - 0.79
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.8
High draw risk (47%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Lagarto Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
26%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
AO Itabaiana Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
45%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
14%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (16%) 1-1 (13%) 0-0 (12%) 2-0 (11%) 0-1 (9%) 2-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 40%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Under 2.5 Goals 64%
Lagarto Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 02 Lagarto vs Confiança 4-0
Jan 26 Lagarto vs Dorense 1-1
Jan 11 Lagarto vs América M… 2-1
Mar 23 Lagarto vs Falcon 1-1
Mar 16 Lagarto vs Falcon 0-0
Mar 13 Lagarto vs Confiança 0-2
Mar 09 Lagarto vs AO Itabai… 2-2
Feb 03 Lagarto vs Dorense 3-1
Jan 28 Lagarto vs Atlético … 2-1
Jan 20 Lagarto vs Falcon 1-1
AO Itabaiana Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 AO Itabai… vs Falcon 4-0
Apr 07 AO Itabai… vs Confiança 1-0
Apr 03 AO Itabai… vs Confiança 2-2
Mar 30 AO Itabai… vs Dorense 2-0
Mar 16 AO Itabai… vs Dorense 1-1
Mar 13 AO Itabai… vs Dorense 0-0
Mar 09 AO Itabai… vs Lagarto 2-2
Mar 03 AO Itabai… vs Confiança 0-1
Feb 18 AO Itabai… vs Falcon 4-0
Jan 31 AO Itabai… vs Atlético … 2-3
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 09, 2024 AO Itabaiana 2 - 2 Lagarto Sergipano
Feb 16, 2023 AO Itabaiana 1 - 0 Lagarto Sergipano
Mar 20, 2022 AO Itabaiana 0 - 0 Lagarto Sergipano
Feb 05, 2022 Lagarto 1 - 2 AO Itabaiana Sergipano
May 09, 2021 AO Itabaiana 0 - 2 Lagarto Sergipano
May 06, 2021 Lagarto 2 - 0 AO Itabaiana Sergipano
May 01, 2021 AO Itabaiana 1 - 1 Lagarto Sergipano
Mar 24, 2021 Lagarto 0 - 2 AO Itabaiana Sergipano
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Lagarto to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Lagarto Power 0
AO Itabaiana Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Lagarto Position

-1

Position Gap

2

AO Itabaiana Position
Home Win Rate: 25%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.