AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga MX Feb 07, 2026

Toluca

Home
VS
23:00

Cruz Azul

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Toluca Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Cruz Azul Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 44%
Market 50%
Combined: 50% Draw Risk: 27%
xG: 3.23 - 1.10
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.2 vs 1.1
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Toluca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
4%
1 goals:
13%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
18%
Cruz Azul Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
33%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (8%) 2-1 (8%) 3-0 (7%) 2-0 (7%) 1-1 (5%) 3-2 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Under 2.5 Goals 30%
Toluca Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Toluca vs Puebla 0-0
Jan 18 Toluca vs Tigres UA… 0-0
Jan 15 Toluca vs Santos La… 3-1
Jan 11 Toluca vs Monterrey 0-1
Dec 15 Toluca vs Tigres UA… 2-1
Dec 12 Toluca vs Tigres UA… 1-0
Dec 07 Toluca vs Monterrey 3-2
Dec 04 Toluca vs Monterrey 1-0
Nov 30 Toluca vs FC Juarez 0-0
Nov 27 Toluca vs FC Juarez 1-2
Cruz Azul Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 05 Cruz Azul vs Vancouver… 0-3
Jan 31 Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez 3-4
Jan 18 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 1-0
Jan 14 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 2-0
Jan 11 Cruz Azul vs León FC 2-1
Jan 05 Cruz Azul vs CDS Tampi… 2-1
Dec 10 Cruz Azul vs Flamengo 1-2
Dec 07 Cruz Azul vs Tigres UA… 1-1
Dec 04 Cruz Azul vs Tigres UA… 1-1
Dec 01 Cruz Azul vs Guadalaja… 3-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Toluca in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Cruz Azul in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 24, 2025 Cruz Azul 1 - 0 Toluca Liga MX
Apr 20, 2025 Toluca 2 - 2 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Jul 21, 2024 Cruz Azul 1 - 1 Toluca Liga MX
Apr 28, 2024 Toluca 0 - 1 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Jul 08, 2023 Cruz Azul 0 - 2 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 12, 2023 Toluca 3 - 1 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Dec 23, 2022 Toluca 1 - 1 Cruz Azul Copa por México
Aug 14, 2022 Cruz Azul 2 - 3 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 21, 2022 Toluca 1 - 4 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Aug 15, 2021 Cruz Azul 4 - 0 Toluca Liga MX
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Toluca Power 0
Cruz Azul Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Toluca Position

-3

Position Gap

2

Cruz Azul Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.