AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
National League Feb 07, 2026

Rochdale

Home
VS
15:00

Carlisle

Away
AI Predictions 61.0% Confidence
Rochdale Win
61.0%
Draw
21.8%
Carlisle Win
17.2%
Home Win (61% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR75+DR<22 (80.6%) HWR80+DR<25 (75.0%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 60%
Market 50%
Combined: 62% Draw Risk: 7%
xG: 3.72 - 0.65
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.7 vs 0.7
Score Prediction Analysis
Rochdale Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
2%
1 goals:
9%
2 goals:
17%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
19%
Carlisle Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
52%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (11%) 2-0 (9%) 3-1 (7%) 2-1 (6%) 1-0 (5%) 1-1 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 47%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Under 2.5 Goals 36%
Rochdale Form 20.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 Rochdale vs Boreham W… 4-1
Jan 27 Rochdale vs Southend 2-1
Jan 24 Rochdale vs Truro City 2-0
Jan 21 Rochdale vs Solihull … 0-1
Jan 17 Rochdale vs Gateshead 0-2
Jan 13 Rochdale vs Tamworth 1-1
Dec 30 Rochdale vs Hartlepool 1-2
Dec 26 Rochdale vs Morecambe 1-2
Dec 19 Rochdale vs Altrincham 0-3
Nov 29 Rochdale vs Eastleigh 2-0
Carlisle Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Carlisle vs Altrincham 3-1
Jan 21 Carlisle vs York 0-3
Jan 17 Carlisle vs Solihull … 3-3
Jan 10 Carlisle vs Chippenha… 1-0
Jan 03 Carlisle vs Wealdstone 2-0
Dec 30 Carlisle vs Morecambe 1-0
Dec 26 Carlisle vs Gateshead 0-3
Dec 21 Carlisle vs Boreham W… 2-0
Dec 10 Carlisle vs Woking 1-3
Dec 07 Carlisle vs Blackpool 4-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Rochdale in strong form (5W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 27, 2025 Carlisle 0 - 2 Rochdale National League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Rochdale to win (51% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 51% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Rochdale Power 49
Carlisle Power 42
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Rochdale Position

+2

Position Gap

3

Carlisle Position
Home Win Rate: 85%
Away Win Rate: 62%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.