Ligue 1 · Sep 24, 2023 18:45
Paris Saint Germain
PWR 49
Marseille
PWR 48
Paris Saint Germain
PWR 49
4 - 0
FT
Marseille
PWR 48
55% H
23% D
22% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Paris Saint Germain to win (61% confidence)
Prediction
2-1
Score
61%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
2-1 (9%)
3-1 (8%)
2-0 (7%)
1-1 (7%)
3-0 (6%)
2-2 (6%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 4-0
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 3 rules · 72%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk21%
Accuracy42%
HOME_WIN_RATEHOME_TOP_POSITIONHOME_SCORING
AH: AH -0.25 - Best line (65% avg across 10 backtests)
AH_025
Standings data available (Tier 2)⚠️ SAME_TIER: Close positions, 28.4% draw rateClose positions = higher draw riskStrong home team = lower draw riskElite league - reduced thresholdBelow minimum tier (need 4+ rules, got 3)
Power & Form
Attack65
Defense76
Goals/G2.2
Conc/G0.8
Attack69
Defense67
Goals/G2.3
Conc/G1.1
Paris Saint Ge… Form
WDWLW
STABLE
Marseille Form
DDLWL
STABLE
Score & Markets
Over 2.570%
BTTS68%
Under 2.530%
Paris Saint… Goals
0
7%
1
19%
2
25%
3
22%
4
15%
Marseille Goals
0
27%
1
35%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
Expected Goals (xG)
2.66
Paris Saint Ge…vs
1.31
MarseilleDecision Breakdown
HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum85%
Standings65%
Market50%
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#1
Paris Saint…+2
Gap#3
Marseille
WR 89% 48 pts
WR 50% 39 pts
Paris Saint Ge…
14.0%
| Jul 21 | Paris S… v LE Havr… | 2-0 |
| May 27 | Paris S… v Strasbo… | 1-1 |
| May 21 | Paris S… v Auxerre | 1-2 |
| Mar 19 | Paris S… v Rennes … | 0-2 |
| Feb 26 | Paris S… v Marseil… | 0-3 |
| Feb 19 | Paris S… v Lille | 4-3 |
| Feb 11 | Paris S… v Monaco | 3-1 |
| Feb 08 | Paris S… v Marseil… | 2-1 |
| Jan 15 | Paris S… v Rennes … | 1-0 |
| Dec 28 | Paris S… v Strasbo… | 2-1 |
Marseille
8.0%
| Sep 17 | Marseil… v Toulouse | 0-0 |
| Sep 01 | Marseil… v Nantes | 1-1 |
| May 20 | Marseil… v Lille | 2-1 |
| May 14 | Marseil… v Angers | 3-1 |
| May 06 | Marseil… v Lens | 2-1 |
| Mar 05 | Marseil… v Rennes … | 0-1 |
| Feb 26 | Marseil… v Paris S… | 0-3 |
| Feb 19 | Marseil… v Toulouse | 2-3 |
| Feb 08 | Marseil… v Paris S… | 2-1 |
| Feb 05 | Marseil… v Nice | 1-3 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Feb 26, 2023 | Marseille | 0-3 | Paris Saint G… |
| Feb 08, 2023 | Marseille | 2-1 | Paris Saint G… |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Paris Saint G… | 1-0 | Marseille |
| Apr 17, 2022 | Paris Saint G… | 2-1 | Marseille |
Key Factors
Paris Saint Germain in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.