AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga Portugal 2 Feb 06, 2026

Chaves

Home
VS
20:15

Penafiel FC

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Chaves Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Penafiel FC Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 88%
Standings 64%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 43%
xG: 2.01 - 0.45
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.0 vs 0.5 Position gap: 9 places
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Chaves Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
13%
1 goals:
27%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
9%
Penafiel FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
64%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (17%) 1-0 (17%) 3-0 (12%) 0-0 (9%) 2-1 (8%) 1-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 31%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Under 2.5 Goals 57%
Chaves Form 2.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Chaves vs Felgueira… 1-0
Jan 24 Chaves vs Lusitânia… 2-2
Jan 17 Chaves vs Benfica B 1-0
Jan 11 Chaves vs MarĂ­timo 2-3
Dec 20 Chaves vs Portimone… 0-1
Dec 12 Chaves vs Oliveiren… 2-3
Dec 07 Chaves vs Pacos Fer… 2-0
Nov 30 Chaves vs Torreense 0-2
Nov 23 Chaves vs Sporting … 0-0
Nov 16 Chaves vs Leixões SC 0-1
Penafiel FC Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 30 Penafiel … vs Leixões SC 0-0
Jan 25 Penafiel … vs Oliveiren… 2-1
Jan 17 Penafiel … vs Portimone… 0-2
Jan 04 Penafiel … vs Pacos Fer… 1-2
Dec 21 Penafiel … vs Torreense 1-0
Dec 12 Penafiel … vs FC Porto B 1-0
Dec 05 Penafiel … vs União de … 1-0
Nov 29 Penafiel … vs Académico… 2-0
Nov 23 Penafiel … vs Marítimo 2-1
Nov 08 Penafiel … vs Sporting … 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Chaves struggling (4L in last 5) Home
  • Penafiel FC struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 30, 2025 Penafiel FC 0 - 2 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
May 15, 2025 Penafiel FC 0 - 0 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
Jan 04, 2025 Chaves 0 - 1 Penafiel FC Liga Portugal 2
Jul 18, 2023 Penafiel FC 1 - 2 Chaves Friendlies Clu…
Mar 06, 2022 Penafiel FC 2 - 1 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
Oct 10, 2021 Chaves 3 - 1 Penafiel FC Liga Portugal 2
Mar 29, 2021 Chaves 2 - 1 Penafiel FC Liga Portugal 2
Nov 09, 2020 Penafiel FC 1 - 0 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Chaves to win (62% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 62% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Chaves Power 0
Penafiel FC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

9

Chaves Position

+9

Position Gap

18

Penafiel FC Position
Home Win Rate: 20%
Away Win Rate: 20%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.