AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
W-League Jan 29, 2023

Melbourne City Women

Home
VS
06:40

Adelaide United Women

Away
AI Predictions 63.0% Confidence
Melbourne City Women Win
63.0%
Draw
21.4%
Adelaide United Women Win
15.6%
Home Win (63% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 68%
Standings 72%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.02 - 0.42
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.0 vs 0.4
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Melbourne City Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
36%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
2%
Adelaide United Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
66%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (24%) 0-0 (24%) 2-0 (12%) 1-1 (10%) 0-1 (10%) 2-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 22%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Under 2.5 Goals 82%
Melbourne City Women Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 21 Melbourne… vs Western S… 1-0
Jan 15 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 1-1
Jan 11 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 0-3
Jan 08 Melbourne… vs Western S… 2-0
Dec 27 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 1-0
Dec 23 Melbourne… vs Canberra … 0-4
Dec 10 Melbourne… vs Newcastle… 5-1
Dec 03 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 3-0
Nov 20 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 1-4
Mar 20 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 1-3
Adelaide United Women Form 2.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 21 Adelaide … vs Melbourne… 1-2
Jan 15 Adelaide … vs Brisbane … 1-1
Jan 11 Adelaide … vs Melbourne… 0-3
Jan 07 Adelaide … vs Canberra … 0-2
Dec 31 Adelaide … vs Newcastle… 2-0
Dec 17 Adelaide … vs Wellingto… 0-1
Dec 11 Adelaide … vs Western S… 0-1
Nov 27 Adelaide … vs Perth Glo… 0-1
Nov 20 Adelaide … vs Sydney FC… 1-0
Mar 13 Adelaide … vs Melbourne… 1-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Melbourne City Women in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Adelaide United Women struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 11, 2023 Adelaide United Wom… 0 - 3 Melbourne City Women W-League
Jan 15, 2022 Adelaide United Wom… 0 - 1 Melbourne City Women W-League
Dec 18, 2021 Melbourne City Women 3 - 1 Adelaide United Wom… W-League
Jan 21, 2021 Adelaide United Wom… 2 - 1 Melbourne City Women W-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Melbourne City Women to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Melbourne City Women Power 0
Adelaide United Women Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Melbourne City Women Position

+4

Position Gap

5

Adelaide United Women Position
Home Win Rate: 71%
Away Win Rate: 17%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.