AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League Dec 05, 2025

Macarthur FC

Home
VS
08:35

Melbourne Victory

Away
AI Predictions 57.0% Confidence
Macarthur FC Win
57.0%
Draw
22.6%
Melbourne Victory Win
20.4%
Home Win (57% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 92%
Standings 60%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 28%
xG: 2.52 - 0.64
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.5 vs 0.6
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Macarthur FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
20%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Melbourne Victory Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
53%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (13%) 3-0 (11%) 1-0 (11%) 2-1 (9%) 3-1 (7%) 1-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 43%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Under 2.5 Goals 43%
Macarthur FC Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 30 Macarthur… vs Perth Glo… 0-2
Nov 27 Macarthur… vs Wofoo Tai… 2-1
Nov 22 Macarthur… vs Wellingto… 0-1
Nov 09 Macarthur… vs Sydney 2-0
Nov 06 Macarthur… vs Công An N… 2-1
Nov 01 Macarthur… vs Western S… 1-1
Oct 27 Macarthur… vs Adelaide … 2-1
Oct 23 Macarthur… vs Công An N… 1-1
Oct 17 Macarthur… vs Brisbane … 1-0
Oct 02 Macarthur… vs Beijing G… 3-0
Melbourne Victory Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 28 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 1-0
Nov 22 Melbourne… vs Sydney 3-0
Nov 08 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 0-2
Oct 31 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 0-2
Oct 24 Melbourne… vs Newcastle… 5-2
Oct 18 Melbourne… vs Auckland 0-0
Sep 24 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 3-0
Sep 21 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 1-0
May 31 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 1-0
May 24 Melbourne… vs Auckland 0-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Macarthur FC in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Melbourne Victory struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 25, 2025 Macarthur FC 1 - 2 Melbourne Victory A-League
Nov 03, 2024 Melbourne Victory 2 - 1 Macarthur FC A-League
Sep 29, 2024 Macarthur FC 0 - 1 Melbourne Victory Australia Cup
Feb 10, 2024 Melbourne Victory 0 - 1 Macarthur FC A-League
Nov 24, 2023 Macarthur FC 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory A-League
Apr 23, 2023 Melbourne Victory 2 - 1 Macarthur FC A-League
Dec 11, 2022 Macarthur FC 0 - 1 Melbourne Victory A-League
Apr 22, 2022 Macarthur FC 1 - 4 Melbourne Victory A-League
Mar 04, 2022 Melbourne Victory 3 - 1 Macarthur FC A-League
May 14, 2021 Macarthur FC 3 - 1 Melbourne Victory A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Macarthur FC Power 0
Melbourne Victory Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

Macarthur FC Position

+4

Position Gap

8

Melbourne Victory Position
Home Win Rate: 38%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.