AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primera División - Clausura Aug 30, 2025

Peñarol Montevideo

Home
VS
16:30

Defensor Sporting

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Peñarol Montevideo Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Defensor Sporting Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 60% Draw Risk: 22%
xG: 2.56 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.6 vs 0.2
Score Prediction Analysis
Peñarol Montevideo Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
20%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Defensor Sporting Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (21%) 3-0 (18%) 1-0 (16%) 0-0 (6%) 2-1 (4%) 3-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 17%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Under 2.5 Goals 53%
Peñarol Montevideo Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 24 Peñarol M… vs River Pla… 2-0
Aug 24 Peñarol M… vs Cerrito 2-1
Aug 16 Peñarol M… vs Rangers FC 2-1
Aug 15 Peñarol M… vs Boston Ri… 2-1
Aug 10 Peñarol M… vs Miramar 0-1
Aug 09 Peñarol M… vs Club Naci… 3-0
Aug 03 Peñarol M… vs Danubio 0-0
Aug 01 Peñarol M… vs Progreso 2-1
May 17 Peñarol M… vs Atletico … 2-1
Mar 12 Peñarol M… vs Inter Club 3-0
Defensor Sporting Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 23 Defensor … vs Plaza Col… 1-0
Aug 17 Defensor … vs Racing Cl… 0-1
Aug 11 Defensor … vs River Pla… 1-0
Aug 02 Defensor … vs Boston Ri… 4-0
Jun 17 Defensor … vs Wanderers 0-0
Apr 20 Defensor … vs Progreso 1-2
Apr 07 Defensor … vs Wanderers 0-0
Dec 06 Defensor … vs Club Naci… 2-2
Nov 30 Defensor … vs Miramar 0-0
Nov 27 Defensor … vs Cerro Lar… 3-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Peñarol Montevideo in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Defensor Sporting in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Nov 17, 2024 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 0 Defensor Sporting Primera Divisi…
Oct 21, 2024 Defensor Sporting 2 - 1 Peñarol Montevideo Primera Divisi…
Jul 27, 2024 Peñarol Montevideo 1 - 0 Defensor Sporting Primera Divisi…
Jan 31, 2024 Peñarol Montevideo 1 - 0 Defensor Sporting Super Copa
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Peñarol Montevideo to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Peñarol Montevideo Power 0
Defensor Sporting Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.