AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
W-League Feb 18, 2024

Melbourne City Women

Home
VS
06:00

Adelaide United Women

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Melbourne City Women Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Adelaide United Women Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 93%
Standings 72%
Market 50%
Combined: 55% Draw Risk: 27%
xG: 2.84 - 0.88
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.8 vs 0.9
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Melbourne City Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
6%
1 goals:
17%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
16%
Adelaide United Women Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
42%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
16%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (10%) 3-0 (9%) 2-1 (9%) 3-1 (8%) 1-0 (7%) 1-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 55%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Under 2.5 Goals 35%
Melbourne City Women Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 10 Melbourne… vs Sydney FC… 0-0
Feb 04 Melbourne… vs Canberra … 3-1
Jan 20 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 2-1
Jan 14 Melbourne… vs Western S… 1-0
Jan 06 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 0-5
Dec 28 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 5-3
Dec 23 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 1-0
Dec 09 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 1-3
Nov 26 Melbourne… vs Sydney FC… 2-3
Nov 19 Melbourne… vs Newcastle… 2-3
Adelaide United Women Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 Adelaide … vs Western S… 2-1
Jan 27 Adelaide … vs Perth Glo… 2-1
Jan 13 Adelaide … vs Canberra … 3-1
Jan 06 Adelaide … vs Melbourne… 0-5
Dec 31 Adelaide … vs Newcastle… 3-1
Dec 23 Adelaide … vs Western S… 0-1
Dec 16 Adelaide … vs Wellingto… 2-1
Nov 26 Adelaide … vs Brisbane … 1-1
Nov 19 Adelaide … vs Sydney FC… 1-3
Nov 11 Adelaide … vs Perth Glo… 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Adelaide United Women struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 06, 2024 Adelaide United Wom… 0 - 5 Melbourne City Women W-League
Jan 29, 2023 Melbourne City Women 1 - 0 Adelaide United Wom… W-League
Jan 11, 2023 Adelaide United Wom… 0 - 3 Melbourne City Women W-League
Jan 15, 2022 Adelaide United Wom… 0 - 1 Melbourne City Women W-League
Dec 18, 2021 Melbourne City Women 3 - 1 Adelaide United Wom… W-League
Jan 21, 2021 Adelaide United Wom… 2 - 1 Melbourne City Women W-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Melbourne City Women to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Melbourne City Women Power 0
Adelaide United Women Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Melbourne City Women Position

+4

Position Gap

5

Adelaide United Women Position
Home Win Rate: 71%
Away Win Rate: 17%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.