AI Match Insights

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Primera División - Clausura Nov 29, 2023

Peñarol Montevideo

Home
VS
19:30

Boston River

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Peñarol Montevideo Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Boston River Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 88%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 50% Draw Risk: 43%
xG: 2.05 - 0.49
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.0 vs 0.5
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Peñarol Montevideo Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
13%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
10%
Boston River Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
61%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (17%) 1-0 (16%) 3-0 (11%) 2-1 (8%) 1-1 (8%) 0-0 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 34%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Under 2.5 Goals 55%
Peñarol Montevideo Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 28 Peñarol M… vs Fenix 0-1
Nov 25 Peñarol M… vs Plaza Col… 0-0
Nov 24 Peñarol M… vs Cerrito 0-1
Nov 19 Peñarol M… vs Danubio 2-1
Nov 19 Peñarol M… vs Racing Cl… 2-3
Nov 15 Peñarol M… vs Cerro Lar… 1-1
Nov 14 Peñarol M… vs Plaza Col… 0-0
Sep 02 Peñarol M… vs Boston Ri… 0-1
Jul 16 Peñarol M… vs Boston Ri… 2-1
May 08 Peñarol M… vs Racing Cl… 0-2
Boston River Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 24 Boston Ri… vs Atletico … 2-0
Nov 20 Boston Ri… vs Defensor … 2-0
Nov 16 Boston Ri… vs La Luz 1-2
Oct 24 Boston Ri… vs Danubio 1-1
Sep 02 Boston Ri… vs Peñarol M… 0-1
Jul 16 Boston Ri… vs Peñarol M… 2-1
Jul 02 Boston Ri… vs Danubio 1-0
Mar 19 Boston Ri… vs Danubio 3-3
Feb 20 Boston Ri… vs Peñarol M… 1-0
Oct 12 Boston Ri… vs Peñarol M… 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Boston River struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 02, 2023 Boston River 0 - 1 Peñarol Montevideo Primera Divisi…
Jul 16, 2023 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 1 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Feb 20, 2023 Peñarol Montevideo 1 - 0 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Oct 12, 2022 Boston River 2 - 1 Peñarol Montevideo Primera Divisi…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Peñarol Montevideo to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Peñarol Montevideo Power 0
Boston River Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.