AI Match Insights

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Primera División - Clausura Oct 21, 2024

Defensor Sporting

Home
VS
22:00

Peñarol Montevideo

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Defensor Sporting Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Peñarol Montevideo Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 68%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 44% Draw Risk: 51%
xG: 2.17 - 1.61
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.2 vs 1.6
High draw risk (51%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Defensor Sporting Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
11%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
11%
Peñarol Montevideo Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
20%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
14%
4 goals:
6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (9%) 1-1 (8%) 2-2 (7%) 1-2 (6%) 3-1 (6%) 2-0 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Under 2.5 Goals 30%
Defensor Sporting Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Jul 27 Defensor … vs Peñarol M… 1-0
Jul 19 Defensor … vs River Pla… 0-1
Jul 14 Defensor … vs Fenix 1-2
Jul 07 Defensor … vs Wanderers 1-1
Jun 22 Defensor … vs Racing Cl… 0-1
Jun 15 Defensor … vs Progreso 1-1
May 22 Defensor … vs Atletico … 2-2
May 12 Defensor … vs Progreso 1-4
Apr 28 Defensor … vs Wanderers 2-2
Apr 10 Defensor … vs River Pla… 2-1
Peñarol Montevideo Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 19 Peñarol M… vs Boston Ri… 2-0
Sep 30 Peñarol M… vs Racing Cl… 0-0
Aug 04 Peñarol M… vs Club Naci… 1-1
Jul 28 Peñarol M… vs Danubio 2-0
Jul 27 Peñarol M… vs Defensor … 1-0
Jul 21 Peñarol M… vs Fenix 2-0
Jul 21 Peñarol M… vs Cerrito 0-1
Jul 14 Peñarol M… vs River Pla… 1-3
Jul 13 Peñarol M… vs Rampla Ju… 3-2
Jul 06 Peñarol M… vs Deportivo… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jul 27, 2024 Peñarol Montevideo 1 - 0 Defensor Sporting Primera Divisi…
Jan 31, 2024 Peñarol Montevideo 1 - 0 Defensor Sporting Super Copa
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Defensor Sporting to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Defensor Sporting Power 0
Peñarol Montevideo Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.