AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primera División - Apertura Jun 23, 2024

Peñarol Montevideo

Home
VS
13:00

Boston River

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
Peñarol Montevideo Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
Boston River Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 56%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 28%
xG: 3.07 - 0.60
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.1 vs 0.6
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Peñarol Montevideo Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
5%
1 goals:
14%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
17%
Boston River Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
55%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
10%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (12%) 2-0 (12%) 1-0 (8%) 3-1 (7%) 2-1 (7%) 1-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 43%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Under 2.5 Goals 38%
Peñarol Montevideo Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Jun 22 Peñarol M… vs Progreso 0-2
Jun 16 Peñarol M… vs Racing Cl… 1-1
Jun 15 Peñarol M… vs Club Naci… 2-1
Apr 20 Peñarol M… vs Boston Ri… 1-3
Apr 17 Peñarol M… vs Atletico … 1-3
Mar 15 Peñarol M… vs Racing Cl… 1-2
Feb 12 Peñarol M… vs Peñarol M… 3-1
Feb 06 Peñarol M… vs Club Naci… 2-1
Feb 05 Peñarol M… vs Boston Ri… 2-0
Jan 31 Peñarol M… vs Defensor … 1-0
Boston River Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Jun 17 Boston Ri… vs Cerro Lar… 0-2
Jun 11 Boston Ri… vs Rampla Ju… 1-1
Jun 04 Boston Ri… vs Club Naci… 1-3
Apr 20 Boston Ri… vs Peñarol M… 1-3
Feb 24 Boston Ri… vs Danubio 0-0
Feb 05 Boston Ri… vs Peñarol M… 2-0
Dec 08 Boston Ri… vs Plaza Col… 3-2
Dec 03 Boston Ri… vs Cerro Lar… 0-1
Nov 29 Boston Ri… vs Peñarol M… 2-0
Nov 24 Boston Ri… vs Atletico … 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Boston River struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 20, 2024 Boston River 1 - 3 Peñarol Montevideo Primera Divisi…
Feb 05, 2024 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 0 Boston River Copa Uruguay
Nov 29, 2023 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 0 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Sep 02, 2023 Boston River 0 - 1 Peñarol Montevideo Primera Divisi…
Jul 16, 2023 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 1 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Feb 20, 2023 Peñarol Montevideo 1 - 0 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Oct 12, 2022 Boston River 2 - 1 Peñarol Montevideo Primera Divisi…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Peñarol Montevideo to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Peñarol Montevideo Power 0
Boston River Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Peñarol Montevideo Position

+4

Position Gap

6

Boston River Position
Home Win Rate: 0%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.